Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have three League of Legends DFS slates on DraftKings Saturday. The first is a five-game best-of-three LPL/LCK slate that locks at 2 a.m. ET. After that is a five-game LEC slate at 11 a.m., and then a five-game LCS slate at 4:30 p.m. I’m here to break down my top DFS builds as well as my strategy. Lineup construction itself is especially important. If you haven’t had a chance, give the Esports 101 breakdown a read.
LPL/LCK Slate
We have a ton of players on new teams, so we might have a different focus, especially based on the data from previous seasons, scrims and recent play.
Given the new meta and the changes around the league, I feel the correlation for ADC with SUP is necessary. Most of my lineups will have ADC with SUP from the same team. The TOP laner should be the lowest scorer this split and will be on an island. If I run 10 lineups, I’ll have some lineups without the correlation of ADC and SUP. JNG and ADC will be the main captains for me with less focus on TOP and MID. Prioritize ADC and SUP together and as the main focus.
I hate to say fade the LCK, but I think that’s the case here. Although I think DRX is sneaky, I wouldn’t play anything more than a two-man stack, which includes Deft as the most important. I love this DRX team and the heavy carry is Deft. As for KDF and BRO, I’ll side on the red hot KDF team with the focus around Teddy, but I’ll be severely underweight. In 15 lineups, I’ll get to two-man KDF or DRX with my preference with DRX.
The LPL is going to be an interesting slate. I mean we have five of the bloodiest teams in the LPL tonight and two matches will have them facing off against each other. OMG/WE and TES/JDG will be my focus. This is all about hedging here. I do believe that OMG and WE has the higher upside, but we can’t ignore a TES match as they are always aggressive and full of kills and deaths all over the place. I will be mixing and matching four-man stacks from both matches. My prediction is WE and TES win, but again, I’ll have all sorts of hedges. I do like this WE team with the return of beishang, so I’m definitely going back to them.
As for BLG and AL, I do see a BLG bounceback, but Doggo got subbed out after match one and he returns today. It worries me he is a sub risk again, but he’s been so good all split. I’ll definitely have some AL exposure as they have been playing better and Betty is doing it all for the team.
Stack Rankings
- WE — Focus on Xing, Beishang, Shanks, BiuBiu
- TES — Focus on JackeyLove, Knight
- BLG — Focus on FoFo, Doggo (sub risk), Crisp, WeiWei, Breathe in that order
- DRX — Focus on Deft, Kingen
- KDF — Severely underweight here — Focus on Teddy, Kiin
- JDG — Focus on Hope, Kanavi, Missing, Yagao
- OMG — Focus on Able, Creme, Cold, Aki
- AL — Focus on Betty, Xhaihao, Forge, ZDZ
LEC
This slate is a lot more difficult than Friday’s, but I’m taking some stands here. XL faces a surprisingly better AST team, who has upset some top teams, but XL is also playing better. I’ll side with XL here and love them in four-man stacks. AST has the most deaths in the LEC this split and XL has paced up. I’ll have a ton of four-man stacks with XL here. Patrik is a heavy carry and the focal point.
BDS and SK is another interesting match as SK shocked the world Friday with a massive upset. Both these teams rank 2-3 in deaths and I’ll chase the SK match. It should be a bloody one and is my second favorite for four-man stacks. My preference for a stack will be SK over BDS, but I’ll have sides of both. SK has beat both G2 and MAD recently and look a lot better as of late.
The surprising MSF team goes against the reeling MAD Lions team. MAD can’t seem to get it together while MSF continues to dominate the LEC. MAD continue to feed in losses, and I’ll side with MSF here in two- or four-man stacks as MSF have one of the most aggressive teams this split.
Speaking of struggling teams, we need to discuss VIT as this “super team” is just not working. They continue to struggle even with the win Friday. RGE bounced back, but showed signs of weakness last week. I’ll still side with RGE here and I’ll focus on two man stacks more than anything.
G2 and FNC rank toward the bottom in deaths this split. I hate to say it, but I’ll avoid this spot, especially after playing slower games and getting massively upset by two lower ranked teams. If I were to choose one team here, I’ll go G2 and I’d play four-man stacks in hopes they feed here and G2 is aggressive.
Focus on ADC or MID captain, but remember to focus on the carries like Patrik from XL and Jezu from SK. Vetheo seems to be carry from MSF, but Neon can take over.
Stack Rankings
- XL
- SK
- MSF
- RGE
- G2
- AST
- BDS
- FNC
- MAD
LCS
The main focus here is the IMT/TSM match, as these two teams are two of the top three in deaths per loss this split. Having exposure to one side and hedging this match is key. I actually lean TSM with Tactical, Spica, and Huni to carry this team. I’m fine with either, but I’m feeling TSM here.
100T and C9 should win with ease and I’m good with two- or four-man stacks, but I’ll probably land on two-man stacks. Remember it’s best-of-one and anything can happen.
EG and TL is a fade for me, but if choosing one, it’s TL here and two-man stacks. Lastly, DIG and FLY face off and these two teams are two of the most surprising this split. I’m going with the big underdog in FLY here, but this is another hedge spot. FLY and DIG have slowed their pace this split, but this is still a game I want to target. Give me FLY for the upset.
Stack Rankings
- TSM or IMT
- C9
- 100T
- FLY
- TL
- DIG
- EG
