Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The ACC football team with the most at stake for its program’s outlook in 2021 and beyond is the Virginia Tech Hokies. Although others may have loftier expectations or in the critical stages of building a future, the Hokies are facing the critical fork in the Justin Fuente-era. Fuente, entering his sixth season with the program, has achieved just a 38-26 record.
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Inconsistency has marred Fuente’s time in Blacksburg. Fuente hasn’t been able to create an explosive offense after quickly establishing one while at Memphis and there’s no question his tenure has been a disappointment thus far. Coming off a 5-6 season, improvement is needed.
We’ll break down the Virginia Tech Hokies’ program and provide a key futures pick. We’re previewing teams across the nation as the 2021 season nears at the end of August. As always, we have your top futures and team bets as we prepare for a profitable campaign.
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Virginia Tech Hokies regular season wins
(O/U 7.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 2021 season will certainly be one of change for the Hokies. Losing 32% of the team’s 2020 production puts the Hokies near the middle of the pack in that key number but the context to that loss is more damning.
The starting backfield is gone as quarterback Hendon Hooker transferred to Tennessee and running back Khalil Herbert is now a Chicago Bears backup. Offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and one of their top receivers, James Mitchell, graduated as well. The passing offense is a huge concern.
It’s unclear who is in line at quarterback with Hooker gone. Braxton Burmeister has been one of the least efficient passers in college football in his limited playing time and doesn’t appear to even have the natural touch to improve much. Could we see graduate transfer Connor Blumrick or freshmen Knox Kadum or Tahj Bullock unseat him?
It’s unlikely. Blumrick was a quarterback who transitioned to running back at Texas A&M. And neither Kadum nor Bullock were high recruits. Years of mediocre or worse recruiting results are showing throughout the roster but show most at quarterback.
I don’t see how this team builds a consistent enough passing attack to win every game they’re favored in. The playmakers are solid, including receivers Tre’ Turner and Kaleb Smith, and a couple of physically gifted backs. But the line is relying upon a sophomore, a freshman, and a graduate transfer center.
Last year’s rushing game was great, and Hooker had the passing offense decent enough to compete but not enough to win. This year will not get easier.
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The defense has more uncertainty. Leaders Chamarri Conner, Rayshard Ashby and Divine Deablo are gone, and now the unit is relying on three new transfers among other new starters. Only defensive tackle Jordan Williams has any pedigree among the transfers.
Normally I’d love to see a schedule featuring home games against North Carolina and Notre Dame, and only one other big matchup in Miami at the end of the season, but this roster is lacking all over. It’s full of unproven wildcards in a good ACC conference. At best, they will win eight games, but that projection includes at least three tossups. The Hokies don’t have the profile of a team worth trusting so much.
I’m fading the Hokies’ win total this year as well as their ACC divisional odds. Fuente simply hasn’t built the pipeline and identity of this program well enough to continue justifying this process, and another .500 season means the program should move on.
Our pick: Under 7.5 (-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)
