Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The ACC features a deep set of intriguing teams capable of entertaining us throughout the 2021 season. From Clemson’s chase for College Football Playoff redemption, to Virginia trying to defend their ACC Coastal division crown, to Georgia Tech’s quest for relevance, the conference has it all. We fully plan on profiting off the ACC as we enjoy the conference.
The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the big mysteries of the ACC. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has built a solid offensive roster but a defense with major concerns. The Cavaliers won the ACC Coastal division when it last existed in 2019, and then the team fell to 5-5 when the divisions temporarily disappeared last year.
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We’ll break down the Cavaliers’ chances at repeating their 2019 success and determine where this program is headed. With a solid coach and history of consistency in his past, it’s possible the Cavaliers can outperform expectations.
We’re previewing teams across the nation as the 2021 season nears at the end of August. As always, we have your top futures and team bets as we prepare for a profitable campaign.
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Virginia Cavaliers regular season wins
(O/U 6.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The good news for Mendenhall and the Virginia Cavaliers is the offense profiles as a continued asset in 2021. Although the passing game lacked efficiency and must cut down on turnovers, a full year of quarterback Brennan Armstrong at full health can do wonders for that effort. Armstrong completed 58.6% of passes for 18 scores and 11 interceptions, then added 552 yards and five scores on the ground.
It’s impressive Armstrong could lead the team in both offensive categories but something that should be changed in 2021 to keep him healthy. There’s plenty of rushing talent in the backfield as Wayne Taulapapa and Keytaon Thompson headline the returning backfield options. This team grinded out an average of 4.4 yards as a team last year and return a veteran cast of blockers in 2021.
The offense averaged a healthy 31 points per game last year and brings several quality receivers back as well. Leader Billy Kemp is the possession king, but look for Ra’Shaun Henry to step into Lavel Davis’ role as a big-play threat. Henry averaged 29.4 yards per catch on seven receptions, and Davis had almost 26 yards per catch on 20 receptions. Davis tore his ACL this spring.
It’s not crazy to project small improvements across the board in offensive efficiency. A full offseason and experience can propel a decent unit to a good one. And their schedule is incredibly favorable to see that jump.
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The defense is the bigger question mark. With 39% of the production from 2020 gone, Virginia could see a good defense slip. This team allowed too many big plays through the air but was great against the rush. Will that change at all in 2021?
I like that all but one starter on the defense are no younger than juniors. Granted, losing second-leading tackler Zane Zandier and leading sacker Charles Snowden hurt, but minimizing the freshmen playing is also important. The question is how prepared is this slew of new contributors?
The talent is solid overall, and the coaching is trustworthy. I’m leaning toward giving this regime the benefit of the doubt. The schedule is also a factor.
Games against William & Mary, Illinois, Wake Forest, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech, BYU, Pittsburgh and even Virginia Tech are absolutely winnable. This is a grinding team that can outlast younger rosters who lack discipline and physicality. I’m betting on them to outperform expectations.
Our pick: Over 6.5 (+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
