Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The SEC is already slated to have several top national championship contenders in 2021. Alabama and Georgia headline a deep group, but there’s several key second-tier lurkers hoping to break through. Texas A&M in particular has hopes of ending their 82-year title drought.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
Head coach Jimbo Fisher has raised expectations for a program that seemed impossibly far from being a contender after Kevin Sumlin and Johnny Manziel burned out of Kyle Field. On talent alone, the Aggies have a legitimate shot at reaching the College Football Playoff.
We’ll break down whether the Aggies have any standout future picks in our Texas A&M projection. Can the Aggies change the narrative around their program in 2021? We cover that and more.
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Texas A&M Aggies regular season wins
(O/U 9.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There is no question the Texas A&M Aggies have one of the most talented rosters in the country. Several strong seasons of recruiting and player development have led to a moment where grand expectations might meet reality. The 2021 field appears unusually open and if the right young players emerge, the Aggies can be a playoff team.
Whether that’s likely is another question. Last year’s Aggies team had a phenomenal run defense and rush offense but was mediocre in creating big passing plays and slowing efficient passing offenses. Having a senior quarterback failed to prove as helpful as many had hoped.
Kellen Mond is gone, and so is 40% of the team’s 2020 production. A whopping 54% of the offense is gone and there’s a tremendous amount of pressure on two young quarterbacks to emerge as a stud starter. But this also highlights an opportunity to replace Mond, who struggled in high-pressure situations and the team in general lacked fortitude against upper-tier foes.
Either freshman Haynes King or sophomore Zach Calzada will take over in 2021. Neither has real experience to fall back upon and this is single handedly the top concern for the team’s title chances. Camp reports have pointed toward neither really taking the job and leaving no doubt left, but maybe one of the passers proves to be better on Saturdays.
Whoever wins the job has a talented but relatively young offensive line. An offsetting factor is the excellent surrounding cast to help elevate the quarterback. No team in the nation has a better backfield.
Junior rusher Isaiah Spiller may lead the nation in yards and is a possible first-round pick in 2021. He’s smooth but powerful and has a great burst of speed to pull away from defenders for home run plays. He totaled 1,229 yards and nine scores last year.
There’s also Devon Achane, who averaged an insane 8.4 yards per carry, and dual-threat Ainias Smith. Smith totaled 857 yards and 10 scores and was the team’s leading receiver in 2020. He’s a do-it-all force from any position.
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Tight end Jalen Wydermyer is arguably the best in the country at his position as well. He owns the middle of the field and will be the consistent presence any quarterback needs to rely upon. He’s another possible first-round pick.
The quarterback will dictate how well the offense operates but also how the defense fares in their revamp efforts. This unit has star defensive lineman DeMarvin Leal and a slew of upperclassmen across the field. There’s no shortage of talent and athleticism for the Aggies.
But a bad quarterback will ruin a great defense due to turnovers and short drives. And with 2020 leading tackler Buddy Johnson and sacker Bobby Brown gone, the defense is already working hard to fill massive gaps of production.
Everything considered, the Aggies’ have a favorable schedule and terrific blend of talent that fits their identity. Their offensive playmakers are elite, and Fisher will ease his quarterback in with five winnable games until Alabama comes to town Oct. 9. There are too many concerns for me to play anyone on the roster for the Heisman Trophy or to pick the Aggies to beat Alabama for the conference title, but I like the team wins line.
9.5 is perfectly set. There are three swing games, with a home game against Auburn, followed by two road games in three weeks against Ole Miss and LSU. Winning two of those three gets the Aggies to 10 wins and a cover.
I’m not optimistic on Auburn and can see the Rebels being exciting but disappointing. LSU already has injury concerns at quarterback, making them vulnerable as well. I’m optimistic Texas A&M will continue their growth and hit double-digit wins in 2021.
Our pick: Over 9.5 (+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
