Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2020 season brought confusion and uncertainty across the college football landscape. We saw the Big Ten scramble as much as any conference after deciding at the last moment possible to partake in the season. The result included favorites like Penn State and Michigan flailing, and Indiana rising as a true competitor.
The Big Ten remains a strong conference as Ohio State heads the pack of solid teams. But there’s been a lack of a major threat in recent years as the Nittany Lions, Wolverines and Badgers have run into roadblocks as the Buckeyes continue building. It’s such a foregone conclusion for some oddsmakers that the Big Ten East doesn’t even have division-winner odds available.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
We’re continuing our series of season previews with the Nittany Lions. James Franklin and company are at a crucial moment in the program’s development. We’ll provide the best betting odds on futures picks and preview their season.
(Join FTNBets with our Early Bird NFL package!)
Penn State Nittany Lions regular season wins
(O/U 8.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
2020 was a bizarre campaign for Franklin’s Nittany Lions. Losing their first five games, including one-score losses at Indiana and Nebraska, then rattling off four big wins to end the season was quite the rollercoaster ride. Going 4-5 overall for a team that was ranked as high as seventh in the country in the preseason was a massive disappointment.
The details of the Nittany Lions’ bad record are especially troublesome. Michigan was the only notable victory, and losing by two scores to Ohio State, Maryland and Iowa were ugly lowlights. You’d think this program might look to push Franklin out, but instead the Nittany Lions have a bright outlook.
Franklin hired Mike Yurcich from Texas to oversee the offense, and this is a prove-it year for both men. Franklin has shown good judgment in previous offensive coordinator hires, and Yurcich must show he’s up for a tough task in Year 1. He’s also out to prove that Texas’ predictable offense had more to do with Tom Herman than himself.
Yurcich has a quality group of talent to work with.
Senior receiver Jahan Dotson is one of the most explosive and versatile receivers in the nation despite his small stature. He torched everyone including the Buckeyes, tallying 884 yards and eight scores on a ridiculous 17 yards per-catch. And he’s flanked by another force in Parker Washington.
The passing game will certainly be under the microscope. Senior quarterback Sean Clifford is a dual-threat presence but not one especially good at throwing or running. His efficiency numbers as either are mediocre, and the offense will require his improvement. I don’t think it’s out of the question we see Will Levis as a replacement if Clifford stalls in his development, though Levis was essentially the same production-wise in 2020.
An interesting storyline for this season includes a highly talented running back corps headlined by incumbent Keyvone Lee. Lee was as solid as they came last year, with almost five yards a carry and four scores. But former 5-star recruit Noah Cain is finally healthy and might have a big say in the upside in the offense if he’s back to his former form.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
The Nittany Lions will only go as far as their upside from the quarterback position and Cain may take them. I love that three seniors are in line to start on the offensive line, but a run-first team that completes about 60% of its passes isn’t good enough to overcome Ohio State, and maybe not Wisconsin or Indiana, to be Big Ten champions.
The defense has its work cut out for it. Returning studs Brandon Smith, Ellis Brooks, Jaquan Brisker and Joey Porter Jr. are the linchpins to the unit. But while the back seven has nice depth and promise, there’s not a clear pass-rush threat on the team.
There’s a lot of improvement needed from a group that already couldn’t produce sacks in 2020.
Road trips to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State must be circled on their schedule. And even home games against Auburn and Indiana reside between those daunting away matchups. It’s possible, if not likely, the Nittany Lions enter the last month of the season needing all four wins just to reach eight wins total.
Penn State currently has the top recruiting class for 2022, a shocking statement considering the mediocrity of the program right now. However, it’s a good reminder things change quickly in college football. I don’t think the Nittany Lions hit the over on their win total line, but will grow exponentially in the future with the experience gained this year.
Our pick: Under 8.5 (+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
