Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Oklahoma Sooners are looking to bounce back from a decent but disappointing 2020 season and return to the College Football Playoff. Their 9-2 record landed them in second place in the Big 12, though they ripped off eight straight wins to close out the season. Their young roster took early lumps but finished strong with their blowout win against Florida in the Cotton Bowl.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
This is typical for a talented roster lacking experience. Unfortunately, college football is unforgiving, and at most the Sooners can afford one loss. They ended at No. 6 thanks to wins against Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Florida.
Expectations are high again for Lincoln Riley’s crew. They’re No. 3 behind the usual suspects, Alabama and Clemson. Having the Heisman front runner at quarterback and entering another season under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch are their best assets.
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Oklahoma Sooners regular season wins
(O/U 11, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Will it be enough? The conference is again loaded with troublesome teams and the Sooners must endure a tricky set of games to close out the season. They should take care of business until the Red River Showdown in early-October against Texas. Then things ramp up in a three-game stretch at Baylor, hosting Iowa State, and at Oklahoma State.
The offense will roll through many foes with ease. Spencer Rattler is the most physically gifted passer yet in Riley’s short but impressive time at Oklahoma, which is quite the statement considering he’s produced two No. 1 overall picks. His arm talent is phenomenal, and his ability to create plays outside of the pocket was uncanny in 2020. His sophomore season should continue to see jumps in efficiency and decision-making.
It’s also easy to love his playmakers. Running backs Kennedy Brooks and Marcus Major are truly impact players at a position that can be filled with average talents who put up numbers. Instead, getting Brooks back in particular will give Rattler a legitimate star and workhorse to rely upon when the passing game bogs down.
The potential at wide receiver is insane as well. Former five-star trio Jadon Haselwood, Theo Wease and Trejan Bridges will finally play together, and join Marvin Mims as rotational contributors. Expectations should be extremely high for Haselwood and Wease in particular based on their high school film and skill sets.
The defense will ultimately determine their fate, as usual. Their defensive line sees a veteran cast of starters back, and it’s paramount they have that type of leadership and physicality. Their losses over the years have often come back to issues on their defensive front, but having this deep rotation of seniors and an influx of talented youngsters can vault them to real contender status.
The back end of the unit is certainly the issue on the roster, though. Even with a couple returning linebackers, the secondary has multiple question marks. It’s good the Sooners can break them in softly against weak foes because there’s a real chance the starters are sophomores at corner and question marks at safety.
Some of this is just the reality of college football. Losing Tre Norwood to the NFL hurts badly, so now the unit will likely be relying on seniors who simply haven’t developed into worthwhile starters. Maybe they take the leap and help more, but my feeling is the Sooners should work with younger talents who have more potential to be helpful instead of just playable bodies.
The Sooners face a tough schedule and a true competitor in Iowa State. I love the value of the Cyclones more than Oklahoma, so we’re simply playing the team wins total.
Our pick: Over 11 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Spencer Rattler to win the Heisman Trophy
(+600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2021 is Spencer Rattler. Rattler is supremely talented and is highly likely to be the top overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. There’s no way I’m betting against his development into a star dual-threat and continuing his ascent.
However, his value must be talked about. At +600, we can get a decent return on this future play. The question must be asked whether this is the best value we’ll get for him or if we can wait things out and benefit from showing patience.
This is where the schedule game comes into play. The Sooners don’t play anyone significant (sorry West Virginia and Nebraska) until Texas Oct. 9. By then, we’ll have already seen massive showdowns featuring other Heisman contenders. Bryce Young and Alabama will have played Miami, Florida and Ole Miss. D.J. Uiagalelei will have played Georgia, and C.J. Stroud will have played Oregon.
If you’re willing to bet that each of those young stars falls, then absolutely grab Rattler at this number. It’s a good return and Rattler will put up monstrous numbers. But his only real chance to win the Heisman is to dominate every week and for Oklahoma to go undefeated. That means beating a tough Iowa State team in their biggest game of the year.
I think Oklahoma has a decent chance of making it happen, but I don’t love the value right now. I think the national narrative will be that this team isn’t good enough and Rattler is another volume stat guy who can’t get over the hump if there’s another legitimate option to vote for.
