Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The Big Ten conference has been dominated by one team over the last seven seasons, and the gap has widened over the last four. The Ohio State Buckeyes were thought to be in trouble when Urban Meyer handed the keys to the program to Ryan Day, but instead Day has turned them into even more of a powerhouse. Everyone else in the Big Ten is trying to catch-up to the Buckeyes’ lofty recruiting accomplishments and on-field destruction.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
2021 again brings high expectations despite a lot of roster turnover for the Buckeyes. They simply boast the best coaching and raw talent. While that could lead to a championship season, there’s a pathway to dropping several key games and being out of the race altogether.
We’ll break down the margins the Buckeyes are working between as we preview their 2021 season. They have some juicy team futures lines available and we’re on the lookout for the best value plays.
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Ohio State Buckeyes regular season wins
(O/U 11, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There’s a lot to love about what we know already and what could be with this Buckeyes team. The wide receiver room is the best in the nation, without question. No other team has two refined future No. 1 picks in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and a plethora of 5-star recruits who could join them.
The bad news is everything else around the offense is a bit of an unknown. Granted, almost every team in the nation wishes they have the unknowns with elite pedigrees that Ohio State has to choose from, but there’s immense pressure within the building to perform. The competition is ungodly, and this could be a positive or negative depending on how each individual player develops and responds.
The offensive line has highly talented starters with Thayer Munford, Harry Miller and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Even with camp competitions open at center and right guard, the only thing to worry about here is the lack of experienced depth. But these are road graders with great potential in the passing game, and the line should be an asset.
Everyone’s eyes are of course in the quarterback room. Now with Quinn Ewers added, the Buckeyes have four quarterbacks who would waltz into a starting job in most programs. They’ll all battle it out and likely rotate into games at some point during the season. It’s hard to imagine C.J. Stroud not winning the job because he has time in the program and played the best during the spring game.
My guess is Stroud wins the job and Ewers sets himself apart in practice over time as the primary backup, and if Stroud slips, Ewers plays. Jack Miller and Kyle McCord transfer elsewhere, and the Buckeyes roll with Ewers no later than 2023 if Stroud can hold the job the next two years.
The running back room has a good floor-raiser in bruiser Master Teague, and more explosive options in Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. Teague isn’t a world-beater but he’s a good bridge back who can grind out yards if the youngsters are struggling with reads. I’m sure this facet of the offense will be just fine.
The defense is likely where the Buckeyes flounder or make their bread in 2021. Stars Haskell Garrett, Zach Harrison, Josh Proctor and Sevyn Banks must continue their high-level of play and meet all expectations for this unit to be great. There are simply too many rotating bodies elsewhere to see a slip from the known entities and survive some tough games on the schedule.
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A second pass-rusher out of Tyreke Smith, Tyler Friday or freshman phenoms Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau will be critical. The linebacking corps has to step up as well as each of the three positions are being replaced from 2020. And the cornerback room beyond Banks and Cameron Brown is filled with freshmen.
Even with these concerns, the Buckeyes will bash the vast majority of their schedule. This program routinely plays up to their competition and has one or two scares per-year. Their Week 2 showdown against Oregon will be a good litmus test, but the Buckeyes are only tested in back-to-back weeks in late October before going to Michigan. Going to Indiana and then hosting Penn State will define their title odds.
I think Ohio State runs the table. They project to be huge favorites in every game because of the sheer talent and coaching ability.
Our pick: Over 11 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ohio State Buckeyes to win National Championship
(+550, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Historically, teams bringing back more production than others perform better throughout the season. The Buckeyes will try to buck that trend after losing exactly half their production from 2020. They rank 121st in the nation out of 127 teams in returning production.
Such a number is usually crippling, but the Buckeyes’ rare recruiting prowess makes them a threat nonetheless. Ryan Day’s ability to replace Justin Fields and Trey Sermon with the myriad quarterbacks and Henderson speaks volumes of the respect he’s garnered across the nation. And the defense is similarly reloaded with high-caliber 4- and 5-star prospects as well.
We’re going to put units on the Buckeyes because it’s only smart to bet on each of the top-three bluebloods at this point. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have earned the benefit of any doubt when it comes to competing at the highest level.
Our pick: Yes to win (+550) at DraftKings Sportsbook
