Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Georgia Bulldogs have had a rollercoaster experience at the quarterback position since Kirby Smart arrived as head coach. There’s a lot of “what-ifs” that have occurred. The saga continued in 2020 as USC transfer J.T. Daniels played in just four games as he dealt with the recovery from an ACL tear in 2019.
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Smart replaced Jake Fromm with the strong-armed Daniels in hopes of making the offense more dynamic and capable of upending Alabama and winning a national title. Daniels was impressive despite middling stats in 2018 as a freshman.
Now, the Bulldogs enter 2021 with championship expectations and oddsmakers have earmarked them as a major threat. We’re diving deep into the Bulldogs’ future picks and odds to see if they offer the right value plays.
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Georgia Bulldogs regular season wins
(O/U 10.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Daniels’ development will dominate much of the season’s storyline after the program has been limited by the position for so long. His stat line in 2020 was much more promising. His completion rate jumped to 67.2% for 1,231 yards, 10.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns to only two interceptions. But further analysis showed much of the growth was through fluff and non-transferable moments as we project whether the unit can compete in a win weekly in a deep SEC.
The majority of Daniels’ deep attempts forced major adjustments but his talented receiving corps. It’s frustrating to see a wide-open receiver end up on the ground because they dropped to avoid a defender from running through them.
His short and intermediate attempts were solid in the small sample size. He can step into the pocket and drive the ball past defenders. Daniels’ mobility is limited to the point where there’s a concern of how little he’ll produce outside of the pocket but winning despite traffic around his feet is a more valuable skill.
Daniels must be more consistent in throwing his receivers open. He lost top playmaker George Pickens to a torn ACL, and newcomer Arik Gilbert must lead an unproven bunch of prospects. The running game should again be dominant as Zamir White headlines a group of terrific recruits.
What’s scary for the Bulldogs is they’re set to face Clemson in Week 1, then travel to Auburn and Florida in October, all while trying to replace 61% of their defensive production from 2020. Just one team has less coming back on defense from last year.
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Azeez Ojulari, Eric Stokes and Tyson Campbell were massive departures from the unit. The recruiting pipeline has been strong but we’ve yet to see the impact from past classes on the field. Who will step up on the defense as a star?
Landing Clemson cornerback Derion Kendrick may be a good start. Kendrick is a great athlete but is coming off a bad 2020 campaign where he was a sieve in the Tigers’ secondary. He has to prove he’s a more consistent playmaker and technician than a pure athlete or he’s at risk of being a huge transfer bust.
There’s a lot of projection with this team. Daniels will be relied upon more than ever and the pressure is high. But I’m not comfortable taking mediocre odds for a team with so many question marks and a track record of coming up short in big moments. I’ll be searching for a better return elsewhere.
Our pick: Under 10.5 (+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
