Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are in the thick of the college football season, and in addition to covering DFS as well as PrizePicks, I will be releasing a couple of weekly betting articles. The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, give you my reasoning for picking said game and direct you to the site with the softest line.
Stanford Cardinal vs. UCLA Bruins
(UCLA -16.5, O/U 66.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Trees have won two games in a row, but things are about to get ugly as the injuries are piling up at the skill positions. They’ve already been playing without their top two offensive weapons in EJ Smith and Michael Wilson but now they’ll be without Swiss Army knife RB Casey Filkins for the season after he suffered an arm injury. That means they’ve lost their top two running backs for the year and will be without their WR1 for most of it. That’s a lot of production to replace, and things are looking bleak as they have a road game against an angry UCLA Bruins squad coming up.
UCLA was handled by Oregon as they lost 45-30 on the road to the suddenly unstoppable Bo Nix and company. Heading back home will be just what the doctor ordered for UCLA as they welcome in the severely depleted Stanford Cardinal. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been phenomenal this season completing 74% of his passes for over 1,700 yards and 17 TDs to just 3 INTs. He has great chemistry with Duke transfer Jake Bobo, and he quickly turned him into the Bruins’ No. 1 pass-catching option. He has 32 catches for 486 yards and 6 touchdowns. Last but certainly not least we have star running back Zach Charbonnet. Stanford is giving up over 185 yards per game on the ground and “Charbs” comes into this game averaging almost 130 rushing yards per game. He has been a matchup-proof wrecking ball throughout the season amassing over 760 rushing yards and 7 TDs, so he is clearly going to have an opportunity to make this game look like a version of Tecmo Bowl. Ride the Bruins with confidence this weekend.
Betting Trends
- UCLA is 2-1 against the spread as a 16.5 point or bigger favorite this year.
- Six of UCLA’s seven games have hit the over.
- Stanford is 4-10-1 against the spread a double-digit underdog since 2019.
Best Bet
UCLA -16.5, -110
Oregon Ducks vs. California Bears
(Oregon – 17.5, O/U 58, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This one may have you perplexed initially, but this is a fantastic spot to target the home dogs. Oregon is coming off a monster victory over UCLA as I mentioned above and are rolling into what many would refer to as a classic letdown spot. Emotionally, the Ducks exerted a lot in the win over UCLA and have themselves primed for a run at the Pac-12 crown. However, overlooking a Cal team that is bad “on paper” would be a huge mistake on their end. Auburn transfer QB Bo Nix is having a ridiculously good season throwing for over 1,800 yards and 17 TDs while also rushing for 382/8. It is worth noting that he has been much better during the course of his career at home. He has a TD to INT ratio of 37-2 at home but things get ugly on the road as the ratio becomes 15-13.
If you’re not a subscriber to the letdown spot angle, allow me to share with you the Bears surprisingly strong record at home against the spread. They are 4-0 against the spread as home dogs since the 2020 season which includes a 3-0 mark when it’s double digits. They’re 14-4 overall against the spread when underdogs since the 2019 season. Cal has a way of hanging around and being pesky. We saw it last week when they were able to cover at home against a clearly better Washington Huskies offense. Trends have to be taken with a grain of salt most of the time, but this is one that I simply can’t ignore, especially with their opponent being rather volatile.
Betting Trends
- Cal is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
- Oregon is 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games versus teams with a losing record.
Best Bet
Cal +17.5, -110
