College Football Games of the Week: Week 9

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best money-making opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

Ohio State vs. Penn State

(Ohio State -15.5, O/U 60.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Buckeyes’ offense has lived up to its preseason billing as one of the best in the country. They rank sixth in success rate overall, second passing and 11th rushing. SP+ has this as the No. 2 offense in the country.

CJ Stroud has been fantastic this season. He is currently the odds on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Stroud is averaging 0.48 EPA per dropback and has 28 passing touchdowns this season to just four interceptions.

Penn State has the No. 9 defense by SP+, but they have struggled at times this season. The Nittany Lions rank 63rd in success rate but have avoided the big play and kept opponents out of the end zone, ranking 19th in EPA per play. Stopping the Buckeyes’ offense is nearly impossible, but Penn State may be able to slow them down a bit.

The Nittany Lions’ offense has not matched the success of their defense this season. Overall, they rank 100th in success rate and have struggled to run the ball all season, ranking 122nd in passing success rate. Against teams that are able to match Penn State physically, this offense has struggled to move the ball this season.

Ohio State’s defense has been much improved this season under new coordinator Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes rank fifth in SP+, fifth in defensive success rate, ninth in passing success rate against and ninth in rushing success rate against. Overall this has been a strong defense and is one of the reasons why Ohio State is considered to be one of the favorites to win the College Football Playoff.

While Penn State is a talented team, I don’t think that they will be able to hold up against Ohio State. This offensive line will struggle against Ohio State’s front and this game will likely play out similarly to how the Michigan game did for Penn State. I think that the Buckeyes will roll here.

Pick

Ohio State -15.5. Bet to -16.5

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

(Kansas State -1.5, O/U 56.5, DraftKings Sportsbook) 

This game is between two top-25 teams, but it features some pretty banged-up quarterbacks. Spencer Sanders has been nursing a shoulder injury for the Cowboys for the last few weeks but has not had to miss any starts for it. Kansas State, on the other hand, finds themselves in a more unclear situation under center.

Adrian Martinez left last week’s contest against TCU in the first quarter. It is thought that he re-aggravated a knee injury sustained against Iowa State. His backup Will Howard came in and threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns as the Wildcats jumped out to a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Howard was injured in the second half but was able to come back in for the last two drives of the game as Kansas State fell to the Horned Frogs.

Martinez’ availability is in question as Chris Klieman said Tuesday, “I don’t know if he will be available”. It would seem like Martinez is a game-time decision but if he is not able to go then it sounds like Will Howard will be the starter.

Kansas State seemingly matches up well against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys’ main strength on offense is their passing game while KSU has a good pass defense. Conversely, Oklahoma State’s defensive weakness is their run defense and Kansas State runs the ball well, with the third-most explosive rushing attack in the country.

I like the Wildcats here, with either Martinez or Howard starting at quarterback. They pose a mismatch for this Cowboys’ team that I would like under the key number of three.

The Pick

Kansas State -1.5. Bet to -2.5. 

Kentucky vs. Tennessee

(Tennessee -12.5, O/U 62.5, BetMGM)

This game will be great because we’ll get to see the strengths of each of these teams match up against each other. Tennessee’s offense ranks ninth in offensive success rate and is rated as the best offense in the country by SP+. Kentucky’s defense is seventh in success rate and sixth in SP+. Seeing these units on the field against each other should make for a great show.

No one has been able to slow down Hendon Hooker and this Tennessee attack this season. Even Alabama, who has one of the top defenses in the country, allowed a 95th percentile success rate to these Volunteers.

While I do think that Tennessee should still have a moderately successful day against this tough Kentucky defense, Will Levis may also have success against a Volunteer pass defense that has struggled this season. 

At 12.5, this line is too high. I think that Kentucky will be able to keep this game within one possession and play the Volunteers close, despite the game being in Knoxville. I would take this down to 10.5.

The Pick

Kentucky +12.5. Bet to +10