College Football Games of the Week: Week 4

This week, we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best money-making opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

Clemson vs. Wake Forest

(Clemson -7, O/U 55.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The return of Sam Hartman at quarterback for Wake Forest was some of the biggest news in the ACC over the first month of the season. With Hartman back under center, Wake Forest hopes that they can compete for an ACC Championship, but beating Clemson will be the first (and largest) hurdle they will have to jump to get there.

This Demon Deacon offense is rated as one of the better units in the country, ranking ninth in SP+ Unfortunately for them, Clemson has the No. 2 SP+ defense on the other side, making this an epic battle between two heavyweight units. 

Through three games, Wake’s offense ranks 36th in offensive success rate and is 19th in passing success rate. Adjusting for opponent is important though. They have played an FCS team, Vanderbilt and Liberty. Vanderbilt has the No. 96 ranked defense by SP+ while Liberty’s defense ranks 75th. 

The Clemson defense has been dominant thus far. Against the two FBS opponents they have faced, they have allowed offensive success rates in the fifth and 20th percentiles. Neither one of these offenses has been strong either though as they rank 80th and 85th in SP+, so it will be interesting to see both of these units step up a notch in competition.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about how poor Wake Forest looked last weekend against Liberty. Wake is not going to be able to move the ground at all against Clemson and I think that they know that. They will need to rely heavily on the arm of Sam Hartman.

I don’t know how the final score of this game may shape out, but I do think that Hartman is going to have to throw the ball 45-plus times in this one. His current passing prop is set at 294.5 yards. Hartman has gone over this number in both of his starts this year and in seven of his starts last year, including 312 against Clemson. Clemson allowed 238 passing yards to Furman’s quarterback and 311 to Louisiana Tech’s. No matter the gamescript, Wake will have to air it out and Hartman may be able to put up a large number as long as they don’t get completely stymied by this defense.

The Pick: Sam Hartman over 294.5 passing yards. Bet to 299.5

Florida vs. Tennessee

(Tennessee -10.5, O/U 62, PointsBet)

Anthony Richardson winning the Week 1 Heisman was great, but he has come back to earth since that performance. Florida’s offense has sputtered the last couple of weeks, scoring only 16 points in a loss to Kentucky and barely beating in-state foes South Florida. Tennessee’s defense ranks 39th by SP+ and isn’t nearly as lethal as Kentucky’s, but Richardson will have to improve upon his -0.31 EPA per pass in order to keep up with Tennessee.

Tennessee’s offense has been humming so far this season under head coach Josh Heupel. They rank 29th in offensive success rate and No. 3 offense by SP+. They have played a fairly easy schedule of defenses though. Florida’s defense isn’t too much of an improvement from what the Volunteers have faced so far though as they rank 67th in defensive success rate and are 55th in SP+’s defensive rankings.

I do think there is a chance that Florida can hang around in this game for a bit if Anthony Richardson can find a way to be effective against this strong Tennessee run defense. More likely though, I think that Tennessee will be able to score with ease against this defense and Florida won’t be able to win enough through the air to keep up.

The Pick: Tennessee -10.5 (-107). Bet to -12

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

(Texas A&M -2.5, O/U 49, BetMGM)

Texas A&M’s offense has been brutal this season to say the least. They scored just 17 points against Miami and 14 against Appalachian State in a home loss. Fortunately for them, both of these teams have strong defenses, but Arkansas’ defense, while it has struggled at times this season, is still on a similar level to these two teams according to SP+. 

The Razorback offensive attack has been lethal this year. They are ranked 16th by SP+ and 33rd in success rate on offense despite facing a schedule that hasn’t been the easiest. They did have to rally back against Missouri State last weekend, but they were much better than MSU overall as they had a 86th percentile success rate compared to the Bears’ 37th percentile success rate. While Missouri State is an FCS team, they will be contenders for the FCS Championship this year and they are definitely not opponents to scoff at.

Miami’s defense is ranked 32nd by SP+ and they held Texas A&M to a 30th percentile success rate. Arkansas’ defense, who is ranked 36th by SP+, should be able to have similar success. Max Johnson was not the answer for the Aggies after replacing Haynes King at quarterback. He averaged -0.12 EPA per pass last week.

I think that Arkansas’ offensive strength poses a problem for Texas A&M this week and the Aggies do not have enough firepower to be able to put enough points on the board to win this one. There are different lines throughout the market on this one, but I was able to find this +2.5 on the Razorbacks at BetMGM by using our FTN Bets Odds Page.

The Pick: Arkansas +2.5 (-110). Bet to -1.5