College Football Games of the Week: Week 12

This week, we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best money-making opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

No. 7 USC vs. No. 16 UCLA

(USC -2, O/U 76, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This weekend we will get to see the most important matchup between USC and UCLA in years. With a win, the Trojans would punch their ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game. If UCLA were to win, there may end up being a four-way tie for the second spot in the conference heading into the last weekend of the season. USC also still has an outside shot at a possible spot in the College Football Playoff, so there is certainly a lot on the line this weekend.

USC has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation. They rank fifth in success rate and sixth in points per opportunity. According to SP+, this is the No. 7 offense in the nation. Sophomore Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley have this offense performing at the highest level in just their first season in Los Angeles. 

They have been strong both through the air and on the ground as their passing attack ranks 12th in success rate and eighth in PPA while the ground game for USC ranks fourth and fifth, respectively, in those two metrics, USC passes at the No. 31 rate in the country, so I would expect to see a lot of Caleb Williams in this game.

UCLA’s defense has been their primary downfall this season and I’m not confident in their ability to stop USC. The Bruins rank 109th in success rate overall and are 112th in points per opportunity. The one thing that this defense does do well is limiting explosive plays, as they rank 21st in defensive explosiveness.

This UCLA team is built in a similar way to their opponents. They rank fourth in success rate and 25th in points per opportunity. The Bruins’ rushing game is one of the best in the nation behind Zach Charbonnet and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. They rank first in the country in rushing PPA and third in success rate. They do have a more balanced approach than USC’s offense as they pass at just the No. 74 rate in FBS.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson is having his best season through the air in his five-year college career. UCLA ranks seventh in passing success rate and 20th in PPA. DTR has proven to be one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country this year and will pose problems for USC’s defense.

USC’s defense has also been a problem for them. The Trojans rank 112th in defensive success rate and 98th in points per opportunity. Their main weakness has come in the rushing game, where they rank 120th in both PPA and success rate, leaving them potentially vulnerable against this UCLA rushing attack.

The USC passing defense has been better than the rushing defense, in large part due to their ability to prevent big plays. They are just 99th in passing success rate against but rank 37th in PPA. This is due to that aforementioned big-play prevention as they have the seventh-best passing explosiveness allowed.

This game is almost too close to call. Because of the similar profiles between the two teams, I would expect this to be one of the more exciting games of the season. Both offenses will dominate, and this matchup will just come down to who can avoid costly turnovers and which team will not have to settle for field goals. The margin between the two is miniscule, but I’m going to lean toward USC winning the game due to the talent of Caleb Williams and his ability to take great care of the ball.

The Pick

USC -2. Bet to -3

No. 10 Utah vs. No. 12 Oregon

(Utah -2, O/U 61.5, BetMGM)

Sticking in the Pac-12 for the other top game of the week, we have Utah traveling to Autzen Stadium to take on Oregon. This will be a rematch of last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game, and the winner of this game would also move into first place in the conference with a USC loss. At minimum, the winner of this game could be in the driver’s seat toward a potential Pac-12 Championship Game berth.

The big news in this game involves the health of Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. Nix suffered an apparent knee injury in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to Washington but did come back in for the final drive of the game. There has not been much news on the status of Nix but there have been some conflicting quotes.

Head coach Dan Lanning said this week in an interview that Nix was preparing as if he can go, but he also praised the backup quarterbacks on the roster and showed faith in Ty Thompson. Other players on the team seemed to hint at the possibility of Nix missing this game, so that will be something to keep an eye on.

Nix transferred from Auburn this season and has made this one of the best offenses in the country. Oregon ranks first in offensive success rate and eighth in points per opportunity. Their rushing game leads the country in success rate and the passing game is third. This is a well-balanced team that is able to attack in a multitude of ways, but it’s unclear how that may change if they are without Nix.

Utah’s defense could potentially be the X-factor in this game. They rank 35th in success rate overall and 28th against the pass. They do tend to allow explosive plays, but that is not what this Oregon offense excels at. The Utes are also 25th in havoc rate and could cause issues for a backup quarterback.

Utah also has one of the more effective offenses in the nation. They rank ninth in success rate this season. The Utes can attack in multiple ways as they are ninth in rushing success rate and 10th in passing success rate. According to SP+, this is the No. 18 offense in the country, which is behind Oregon’s ranking of third, but still quite impressive.

Oregon’s defense has struggled for much of the year, particularly against the pass. They rank 88th in overall success rate but 32nd against the run and 119th against the pass. Against Cam Rising and this Utah offense they will need to be better than they have been.

This line has already moved toward the Utes following the rumors around Bo Nix, so even though I’d lean toward the Utes, I don’t want to back them as favorites in this game. Instead, I will be playing the under. Utah’s defense is solid and will be one of the better units that Oregon has had to face. With the quarterback situation for Oregon, I don’t expect them to be quite as efficient, even if Nix does play. 

Utah ranks 107th in seconds per play while Oregon is 54th in pace. Neither one of these teams hurries the game along, so there is a chance that this game could be much slower than expected.

The Pick

Under 61.5 Points. Bet to 59.5