College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Week 7 of the college football season brings us a matchup between two Pac-12 titans. The Oregon Ducks travel to Montlake Boulevard in Seattle to face America’s team, the Washington Huskies.
I may or may not be a Huskies homer, but I won’t let that fandom or my distaste for the Oregon Ducks cloud my judgment while breaking down this game. This is going to be fun for DFS players, sports bettors and football fans alike.
Oregon comes into this matchup with a perfect 5-0 record, which includes two conference wins. The Ducks were off last week after a 42-6 shellacking of the Stanford Cardinal in Week 5. Their offense operated with Terminator-like precision as usual as Bo Nix threw for 290 yards and 4 TDs while Bucky Irving rushed for a score and stud wideout Troy Franklin caught 7 passes for 117 yards/2 TDs.
U Dub comes in with an identical 5-0 record and sits in a tie with Oregon for second in the Pac-12 standings at 2-0. The Huskies were also on a bye after being unexpectedly pushed by the Arizona Wildcats in week 5. They ended up gutting that victory out by a score of 31-24 thanks to 4 rushing touchdowns. Penix had a “down game” by his standards as he didn’t have any touchdowns, but he still threw for almost 370 yards.
I’m extremely excited to analyze this matchup and find the best possible angles for us to attack from a betting perspective. Let’s dive in.
Odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oregon Ducks vs Washington Huskies
Spread: Oregon +3 (-110), Washington -3 (-110)
Moneyline: Oregon +135, Washington -155
Total: Over 67 (-108), Under 67 (-112)
This battle could very well shape the direction of the Heisman race for the rest of the season, as Michael Penix takes on Bo Nix in a game that projects to have an abundance of offense. The defenses of each program are adequate but far from elite which means a shootout is on tap and we are likely going to come down to a situation in which the team with the ball last ends up winning.
Huskies QB Michael Penix has been phenomenal so far, throwing for 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions through five games. Penix doesn’t account for much in the running game, but that’s less about ability and more about offensive scheme. The Huskies don’t rely on their running game much at all and prefer to rely on Penix’ elite arm.
However, we did see against Arizona that the running game has to still be accounted for as Dillon Johnson ended up rushing for nearly 100 yards while scoring multiple times. The key to this one for Oregon will be their ability to keep everything in front of them because if they let any of the speedy receivers of the Huskies get behind them, it’s going to be a long afternoon for their secondary.
Did I mention this game was going to feature prolific offense? Washington is averaging 569.4 yards per game, which happens to be No. 1 in all of college football, while Oregon is second with 555.8. Furthermore, Penix is second in passing yards and first in yards per pass, so there is no question about how dangerous yet efficient the signal caller has been.
Nix has worked hard to put his Auburn years behind himm and he has totally revitalized the way he is perceived. Nix has thrown for nearly 1,500 yards and 15 TDs to only 1 INT. He has only rushed for 87 yards and scored just once on the ground but it’s important to remember he is extremely proficient as a dual-threat QB. He rushed for 510 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground a season ago, so it’s not as if that ability has evaporated. It’s simply a case of the team being so effective in the passing game that they haven’t had to rely on Nix making plays with his legs. This also cuts back on any potential injury situation that could arise from a mobile QB getting hit more often.
With this game expected to be high-scoring and very close, Nix could be put into a position to utilize his mobility.
Washington is first in yards per play at 8.81, third with 46 points per game and second with 24 plays of 30 plus yards. This is thanks to a receiver room that includes future NFL players Rome Odunze (32-608-4, 45 targets), Jalen McMillan (20-305-3, 24 targets) and Ja’Lynn Polk (26-468-4, 32 targets). McMillan has been dealing with injuries but is expected to be available for this upcoming game with Oregon.
Not to be outdone, the Ducks feature a plethora of electric pass-catchers as well. Troy Franklin has massively broken out and quickly become a household name after producing a 32-535-7 stat line through five games. He is also leading the team in targets by a wide margin with 42, 20 more than the next closest player.
Tez Johnson (15-203-3, 22 targets), Gary Bryant (18-227-2, 21 targets) and Traeshon Holden (17-185-3, 20 targets) create plenty of mismatches for opposing secondaries as well. We certainly can’t forget about the incredibly efficient Bucky Irving either. He has a YPC of 7.9 and a total of 393 rushing yards. He is also heavily involved as a receiver having caught 18 of his 20 targets for over 125 yards.
All of this is to tell you that we are looking at the total of 67 and slamming the over with confidence. It’s legitimately going to come down to which offense can avoid making a mistake late and one of these defenses is going to have to play their best game of the season.
Best Bet
Over 67 Total Points
