Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
While the Week 1 glory of college football has washed away, there are plenty of valuable betting spots across the board in Week 2.
Today’s Best Bet takes us to Nashville, Tennessee, where Wake Forest travels to Vanderbilt.
Wake Forest (-12) @ Vanderbilt
12:00 p.m. ET Saturday
Bet: Wake Forest -12, -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
While I’m as happy as anyone for Vanderbilt getting out to a nice 2-0 start, it’s time for reality to come calling. It was nice to cash that -7.5 ticket vs. Hawaii in Week 0, but they also didn’t dominate Elon in Week 1, which would have been nice to see. I already liked Wake Forest before the huge news, so we should address the elephant in the room. Quarterback Sam Hartman is back after missing Week 1 with a non-football injury. He had surgery to remove a blood clot on August 9. Before the season, it would have been hard to find a quarterback ranking without Hartman in the top 10, so this game just got a whole lot harder for Vanderbilt.
While the team easily stomped VMI 41-10, it was good to see Wake Forest handle the backup quarterback change effectively. Running backs Christian Turner and Justice Ellison ran a combined 26 times for 180 yards and 2 TDs, with freshman quarterback Mitch Griffis going 21-29 for 288 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs. This offense worked well with a game manager at quarterback, but I expect their playbook to get a whole lot more creative with the versatility Hartman adds. Hartman made Wake one of the more explosive teams in the nation last year, finishing 5th in EPA with a 50-touchdown season.
Over the last two weeks, Vanderbilt has really had the talent advantage on both sides of the ball. While that defensive line may have been able to slow down Hawaii and Elon (although 32 points isn’t great), I don’t think they stand much of a chance against this Wake Forest offense. Quarterback Mike Wright has been fun to watch run all over the place the last couple weeks, but I’m not convinced this run continues against a better Wake Forest defense. Having the talent advantage must have been a breath of fresh air for Commodores fans, but I’m afraid it’s time for that to end. I think sportsbooks are hedging their bets with Hartman possibly coming back slowly, but I think Wake could cover this number with their backup.
