Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 11 of the college football season is here.
Below, Monotone will give out his favorite CFB play of the week.
Tulane ML
-115, DraftKings Sportsbook
Tulane versus UCF might be one of the most underrated matchups of the week. This is arguably one of Tulane’s most important games in recent program history. Even if you were high on them to enter the season, I think it’s fair to say that going 8-1 being ranked 17th in the nation exceeds all those expectations. Tulane is currently 8-1 against the spread, one of the best marks in the national, yet they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve here. UCF is coming into this game after surviving two tough matchups against Cincinnati and Memphis, and they surely don’t get a break here.
One of the biggest reasons I like Tulane here not just because it’s a good situational spot, but because I think they can slow down what UCF does best. Central Florida is built on their dynamic dual-threat rushing game, and I think Tulane can slow them down. They currently rank 17th in the nation in yards per game allowed and 38th in the nation in rush yards per game allowed. This is the toughest task they’ve faced this season, but it’s more likely that UCF is forced to play a little bit of a different style of football in this one. If they can make them pass more, and even force some more turnovers, then they could put UCF in a gamescript where they really struggle.
On the other hand, UCF has struggled on defense and excelled on offense this season. While the Tulane offense is nothing special, they should be able to take on a very lackluster UCF secondary. UCF has a top 10 ranked rushing attack this year, which thankfully does play into Tulane defensive strength. That doesn’t mean that they are suddenly going to stop UCF, but it does mean they are better equipped to slow down that offense. If they can turn those key stops on defense into points, then they can win this game, simple as that.
In the Willie Fritz era Tulane is 26-11 against the spread at home, covering spreads at an insane 70% rate. They are also 6-1 in those games as favorites, which is important here against UCF. This is gritty team playing in one of their biggest games of the season at home with a sold-out crowd. This team has battled through adversity, I expect them to score a huge divisional win Saturday.
