College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 14

The college football regular season is wrapping up, and the playoff picture has begun to take shape. There are still conference championships to get through, but first we have Thanksgiving week, which offers a ton of games all day Friday as well as Saturday. There are a couple of bets that are extremely advantageous and will be our primary focus.

Let’s get into it.

Miami OH vs. Bowling Green

(Bowling Green -2, O/U 40.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This Black Friday battle pits the RedHawks against the Falcons for a spot in the MAC title game. If Bowling Green can win this game, it will be their first appearance in the championship game since 2015. There are weather concerns here, so defense and the running game will be extremely important.

The Falcons are led by a trio of backs in Terion Stewart (856 yards), Jaison Patterson (397 yards) and Jamal Johnson (138 yards) with the team averaging over 150 YPG on the ground. Star tight end Harold Fannin (92-1295-9) is considered a game-time decision, but with this being such an important game it would be a shock if he doesn’t play.

Meanwhile, Miami’s top rusher Keyon Mozee (937 yards) will likely handle a heavy workload throughout this matchup. However, they have struggled with their red zone offense, scoring on less than 42% of their trips inside the 20. The Falcons defense has allowed a touchdown on just 45% of their opponents red zone trips. This is a true battle of the trenches, and I will lean into the home team here.

The Pick

Bowling Green -2

Old Dominion vs. Arkansas State

(Old Dominion -3.5, O/U 58.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are going back to Arkansas State again after they covered against ULM last week as one of our featured bets. The Red Wolves are 4-0 at home this season and are bowl-eligible with a 7-4 record, while ODU comes in at 4-7.

Both defenses have struggled, and it’s going to come down to which team can execute on offense more effectively. ODU is giving up over 400 yards of total offense to their opponents, and they’ve been especially weak against the run, which will be a problem against the Red Wolves.

Arkansas State utilizes the tandem of Zak Wallace (533 yards) and Ja’Quez Cross (548) in the running game while dual-threat QB Jalen Raynor (384) has also been effective with his mobility. The Monarchs lean heavily on QB Colton Joseph, RB Aaron Young and WR Isiah Paige.

ODU has lost three straight games, and the common denominator was a dual-threat QB. Appy State’s Joey Aguilar, Marshall’s Braylon Braxton and JMU’s Alonza Barnett all rushed for 60+ yards or scored multiple times on the ground. This may be one of my favorite bets of the year so far.

The Pick

Arkansas State +3.5