Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Clemson Tigers quickly rose to power under head coach Dabo Swinney thanks to their ability to stack talent around an explosive quarterback. Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson allowed the program to become an elite one nationally, and then Trevor Lawrence followed Watson. Clemson has finished in the top-four of the final AP poll every year since 2015 and did it again last season.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
Dealing with transfer losses and underclassmen fleeing to the NFL is part of the difficulty when a program is this successful. Clemson lost Lawrence, running back Travis Etienne, cornerback Derion Kendrick and offensive tackle Jackson Carmen this past offseason on top of senior graduations. But their odds of getting back to the Playoff remain as strong as anyone.
(Join FTNBets with our Early Bird NFL package!)
Clemson Tigers regular season wins
(O/U 11.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Most of the contenders are in the same boat as Clemson, which is preparing to host a competition along several offensive playmaker spots. The uncertainty at running back and receiver means there’s more likely to be committee approaches over reliance on stars.
That’s tough for a new but talented quarterback in D.J. Uiagalelei. He’ll need a young back to emerge like Etienne did, and hope Justyn Ross is a star receiver once again. Luckily, Ross received medical clearance and is expected to be in the mix as the nation’s top receiver once again.
Competing on the highest level requires dominant talent, not just a deep depth chart with notable recruits.
Lyn-J Dixon and Darien Rencher are seniors who can hopefully handle the load all season, but watch for 5-star freshman Will Shipley to break into the backfield at some point to give more explosiveness. Clemson will hope he’s the real deal early on to give them an edge against Playoff competition.
The same type of competition is setting up at receiver. There are battles at every receiver role, and freshmen will be involved. Whether 5-star Troy Stellato or 4-stars Beaux Collins and Dacari Collins can immediately help could swing the Tigers’ season.
Making a good offense work with young playmakers is one challenge but the toughest task is to get an inexperienced set of blockers to gel quickly. Clemson faces Georgia right out of the gate and will need their line humming right away. This is another spot where freshmen could enter into the mix and change the game, though.
Performance could keep this unit from settling in for quite some time because of all the turnover. Right now, it seems as though two sophomores will start between left tackle Walker Parks and center Mason Trotter. Then the rest of the line features two juniors in right guard Will Putnam and right tackle Jordan McFadden, and then grad transfer Matt Bockhorst at left guard.
Uiagalelei will have to overcome growing pains throughout the year on top of his own developmental curve. This is not an easy task.
After Georgia, the Tigers’ danger zone is between early October to November, where they play Boston College and Florida State at home, and travel to Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville. Young players will feel the pressure in these moments as the season grinds on, and mistakes will be made.
Of course, Clemson will be the favorite in the vast majority of their games, if not all of them until we see them take the field. We can’t count out Swinney and his talented coaching staff. But this is his most difficult challenge in years, and it’s possible Clemson loses a handful of games in the regular season.
Our pick: Under 11.5 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
D.J. Uiagalelei to win the Heisman Trophy
(+750, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Uiagalelei has the physical profile evaluators dream of. His 6-foot-4, 250-pound frame pops off the screen immediately, and he’s a quality athlete for his size. His ability to make plays within the pocket and outside of the tackle box has already been flashed in only two starts.
His numbers in games against Boston College and No. 4 Notre Dame have been nothing but outstanding for a veteran starter, let alone a true freshman. He completed 69-of-99 attempts for 872 yards and four scores with zero interceptions. And he attained those numbers by dominating on short and intermediate passes.
This is unique for his skill set and archetype since he has such a strong arm and powerful build that one would assume he’d be more of a downfield thrower. His pass distribution looks more like a weak-armed quarterback is limited to, not one that has the effortless velocity and downfield touch that Uiagalelei has displayed.
I expect his numbers to rival even Lawrence’s in terms of total yards though his completion rate may not be as high. The low to mid-60’s would be solid with 3.500 yards, 30 touchdowns and under 10 interceptions. He’ll be an immediate stud and early favorite for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick.
Our pick: Yes to win (+750, DraftKings Sportsbook)
