Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021 college football will surely bring plenty of surprises. While many expect the traditional blueblood programs to dominate the headlines once again, there’s a surplus of turnover and youth in line to turn the tides in the College Football Playoff race. The Pac-12 North is looking to disrupt the title chase with one of their own.
We’re breaking down each college football division to unearth the best future odds plays. The Pac-12 North offers tremendous value and incredible intrigue. Are oddsmakers correct in favoring Oregon and Washington, or can a longshot creep into the conversation?
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
We’ll look at that and more for each Pac-12 North contender. From Oregon to Oregon State, let’s breakdown each Pac-12 North team and project how their season will play out.
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Oregon Ducks division winner odds
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Quietly, Mario Cristobal is building a stable presence atop of the Pac-12. Looking for his third straight conference title, Cristobal has redefined the Oregon Ducks’ program into a tough-nosed team that wins in the trenches. The overhaul was needed after the Ducks had been smacked on the big stage by programs prioritizing size more than they did.
This iteration of the Ducks has strong playmakers, led by running backs C.J. Verdell and Travis Dye. The defense is downright scary and will keep them in every single game. I love their profile, headlined by the fact that 86% of their production from 2020 is back. It’s possible there’s room for offensive improvement as quarterback Tyler Shough transferred out and grad transfer Anthony Brown and five-star recruit Ty Thompson are in.
The Ducks are my pick because the structure is so strong around an uncertain position. While I don’t love that this staff didn’t maximize Justin Herbert’s talent two years ago, I think their formula will consistently get them past lesser teams. This is a differentiating trait compared to Washington.
Washington Huskies division winner odds
(+130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Usually, I love teams that have a lot of production coming back from a successful previous season. But because the Pac-12 only had four games in 2020, things are murkier in the small sample. When reviewing the Washington Huskies, I had issues finding comfort with their passing offense.
Dylan Morris looked as young as he is. A full offseason will help him, but now there’s graduate transfer Patrick O’Brien and star freshman Sam Huard to push Morris. I’d be more surprised if Morris holds onto the job all year than if he weren’t.
Besides a slew of transfers and youth at receiver, the Washington roster is experienced enough to challenge for the Pac-12 North crown. They’re a good value here and have the most favorable schedule possible as they host every important matchup. Washington has a high floor and potentially a 10-win season if the quarterback position turns into a true asset.
California Golden Bears division winner odds
(+1400, DraftKings Sportsbook)
If only the Cal Bears could combine their offensive glory days from Sonny Dykes’ squads with the defensive prowess of J.J. Wilcox’s teams, this team would be a true Pac-12 force. Alas, Wilcox’s offense remains a true mystery. The incumbent unit is almost all back, and not one underclassman is slated to see significant playing time.
Quarterback Chase Garbers and running backs Christopher Brown Jr. and Damien Moore must be significantly more effective at converting first downs and scoring opportunities. This offense simply must be average to allow them to compete at a higher-level.
That’s a big jump for a unit that was averaging less than 200 yards passing per game and 3.5 yards per carry last season. The defense is almost Pac-12 championship ready. This is a good sleeper bet if you want a longshot line, but know the roster and program has the inherent offensive flaw that seemingly can’t be solved by this staff.
Stanford Cardinal division winner odds
(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Last year’s limited schedule hurt the Stanford Cardinal as much as any program within the Pac-12 North. Head coach David Shaw had a great cast of players but was only able to retain 55% of the group from 2020. Gone are upside-risers like quarterback Davis Mills, receiver Simi Fehoko, linebacker Curtis Robinson and defensive backs Paulson Adebo and Malik Antoine.
This team is young entering 2021. They won’t win the Pac-12 North because of this. But they’ll be competitive and surprise oddsmakers thanks to a very forgiving schedule that has just two difficult road matchups against USC and Arizona State.
Washington State Cougars division winner odds
(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There are a few ways to look at the Washington State Cougars. On one hand, Nick Rolovich’s group is returning a whopping nine offensive starters and 11 of 12 defensive contributors who logged at least 100 snaps. He also landed graduate transfer quarterback Jarrett Guarantano from Tennessee.
Those things bode well for a bounceback season. But on the other hand, the defensive issues were massive, and new personnel may have been more valuable than simple experience on that side of the ball. Also, Guarantano was far from a world-beater for the quarterback-needy Volunteers.
Washington State has a solid team wins line worth playing but is not a threat to win the Pac-12 North divisional race.
Oregon State Beavers division winner odds
(+2000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This coming season will be a rough one for the Oregon State Beavers. Despite having a tremendously good rusher in Jermar Jefferson, the Beavers still couldn’t outproduce their foes on the ground. This issue was compounded through inconsistent and inefficient quarterback play.
So, what’s to like about a bad passing offense and young, porous defense? There’s not much. The best case is their four transfer defenders can solidify the unit closer to an average bunch, and maybe incumbent quarterback Tristan Gebbia can create bigger plays out of the pocket.
They’re a major fade candidate this fall.
