Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Alabama Crimson Tide have continued to set records with their dominance under head coach Nick Saban. His 165-23 record is complemented by his seven national championships. It’s easy to see why he’s again the favorite to hoist the trophy in 2021.
The Crimson Tide will surely be in the mix as they reload with a slew of high-end prospects with blazing speed and NFL size. It’s incredible how they not only land the best recruits but also the best coaches. Saban hired former NFL head coaches Bill O’Brien and Doug Marrone to his offensive staff just this offseason.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
His factory of success has trickled down to everyone who has anything to do with the team. Both of those coaches will get hired elsewhere as head coaches eventually, and most of the team’s starters will get at least a camp invite to an NFL team’s training camp. It’s easy to pick this team to continue repeating as champions because they’ve mastered the formula to win.
We’re previewing the top teams in the nation as the 2021 season nears at the end of August. As always, we have your top futures and team bets as we prepare for a profitable campaign.
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Alabama Crimson Tide regular season wins
(O/U 11.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The obvious wart on Alabama’s resume is their lack of experience. The offense alone will feature as many as 10 freshmen getting significant playing time. Even more daunting is the fact Bryce Young may start his Alabama career throwing to and being blocked for by that many youngsters.
Saban’s largely been able to avoid such a daunting task throughout his career. But Young represents another mobile and highly gifted playmaker like Tua Tagovailoa. There’s no justifiable way he could’ve landed the young star with a credible threat to take his job already on the roster.
The running back spot is in good hands again as Brian Robinson and an unproven but talented back will step up eventually. It’s critical the run game explodes to help Young. It will, because Saban has never produced a poor rushing team with Alabama, but there’s also not a clear pecking order yet.
The defense is in better hands at least. There are only two projected starters who aren’t upperclassmen, and the depth on the unit is impressive again. It’s hard to see who the primary pass rusher will be though, and there’s not a defensive back as good as Patrick Surtain Jr. was last year.
The growing pains will be tough even for this loaded core of talent.
It’s not likely Alabama would lose to Miami in most season openers. However, the lack of experience on the Crimson Tide’s offense combined with the presence of high caliber athletes on Miami makes it more possible an upset is brewing. D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes offense will put pressure on Alabama’s defense.
Showdowns against Florida, Ole Miss and Texas A&M before mid-October are actual threats to another undefeated season. While two of those teams are also replacing quarterbacks, they both have stout defenses, and retained more proven talent across the board than Alabama did. This tends to show when the underdog is at home.
Alabama’s used to getting favorable schedules but this year is a different tone. I’m fading their national championship odds because even one loss will provide us much better value later in the year.
Our pick: Under 11.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Bryce Young to win the Heisman Trophy
(+900, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The chase for a Heisman Trophy will also be a storyline in Tuscaloosa since Young is regarded as a favorite for the award. College football saw a lot of star talent depart this last year, thus creating high expectations for the underclassman.
Young will have more than enough firepower around him to succeed. He showed this in the Alabama spring game, completing 25-of-44 passes for 333 yards and a touchdown. Several well-placed passes were dropped but no one left the A-Game thinking Young disappointed.
Receivers John Metchie III, Javon Baker and Slade Bolden headline a deep group of young but hungry upcoming stars. Losing another two first-round picks to the NFL this year will sting but there’s no reason to think this unit will at all hold Young back from producing as he needs in order to win the award.
The offensive line is easily the biggest area of concern. Only one veteran returns to the group, making it likely the early part of the season has major issues. Freshmen Pierce Quick and JC Latham may be asked to start right away against quality foes.
Young is a fantastic dual threat, but his decision-making and pre-snap processing will be put to the test. It’s hard protecting a young passer in the conference, just ask Auburn and Bo Nix. Eventually a hiccup is more than likely to occur, and the Heisman race can be lost in a moment.
I’m fading this pick even if I’m optimistic Young’s name will be relevant for much of the year.
