NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There are fewer independents around college football this season, as a couple of them took the leap and joined the oddly formed Conference USA. Still, good football should be seen from this group — Army, UConn and Notre Dame all had six wins or more in 2022 and have a bright future ahead of them. There’s also UMass, who is looking to pick up more than one win in a season. Let’s take a look at their season outlooks and where I have a betting lean.
Army
Win totals: Over 5.5 (-158, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 6 (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schedule Notes
Army has just four true road games this season, with three of them coming in the first four weeks. They take on UTSA and Syracuse away from home to close out September. After that, they have just one true road game, at LSU Oct. 21. The rest of the slate features five contests at home and the usual neutral matchups against Air Force and Navy. Once again, there are two FCS opponents on the schedule, which means they’ll need seven wins to become bowl eligible.
QB Battle
Bryson Daily vs. Zach Mundell vs. Ahlon Mitchell
Roster Notes
We have changes aplenty in West Point as Army is moving the offense from the triple option to more of a shotgun-based attack. Drew Thatcher is the new offensive coordinator, and he comes from D2’s Nebraska-Kearney, where they were pretty good. The quarterback position is a huge question with potentially five different players vying for the starting gig. Overall though, the unit will ride the RB room with Tyson Riley, Jakobi Buchanan, Ay’Jaun Marshall and Tyrell Robinson all back as well as four returning offensive linemen. The defense lost Andre Carter but has seven starters back. The strength is a secondary that held its own only because teams were too busy running wild on their front seven.
Prediction
I was way too optimistic last year and it bit me, so I think a return to 6-6 could be in the cards. No play here though.
UConn
Over 4.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Under 5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schedule Notes
The Huskies have five of their first seven at home, as NC State and Duke both come to Storrs in the first month of the season. The rest of the schedule gives them just one true home game as they play three straight on the road from Oct. 28 to Nov. 11 with trips to Chestnut Hill, Rocky Top and Harrisonburg.
QB Battle
Maine transfer Joseph Fagnano vs. Zion Turner vs. Ta’Quan Roberson
Roster Notes
UConn went bowling last year, so there’s actually expectations of success for the 2023 campaign. It’ll be interesting to see who wins the quarterback job with Turner doing well after Roberson tore his ACL in the opener last year. The best part of the offense is the four returning starters up front who will be blocking for Victor Rosa, who surprised everyone in his freshman season. Devontae Houston is a nice supplemental back when Rosa needs a break. The defense has eight starters back including Jackson Mitchell who had 140 tackles last season. He’s got help in Kansas transfer Eriq Gilyard at linebacker. If things break well, once again this team will threaten for a bowl.
Prediction
I like the over, as I think they have a good shot at 5 wins.
Notre Dame
Over 8.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 9 (-145, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schedule Notes
The Fighting Irish begin the year in Ireland against Navy. They follow that up with three of their next four at home, with the highlight being Sept. 23 when Ohio State comes to town. They have a tough road trip to Clemson Nov. 4 and host USC and Pittsburgh in October.
Quarterback
Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman
Roster Notes
Let’s start with the massive positive in the addition of Hartman, who threw for 110 touchdowns with the Demon Deacons. He adds a veteran presence to the huddle and will be one of the better quarterbacks they’ve had in a while. The offseason also saw Notre Dame promote TE coach Gerad Parker to offensive coordinator. Parker was demoted in his first season at West Virginia as the OC, so the promotion has its question marks. One would think a school like this would be able to do a lot better at that position than an internal promotion. The offensive line is highly ranked, and they’ll be opening holes for Audric Estime, but not Logan Diggs who left as a transfer following spring practice. The other skill positions could struggle especially now that TE Michael Mayer is in the pros. The defense has to overcome the loss of three key members of the front-line including Isaiah Foskey who is the school record holder for sacks. The secondary lost a few members as well, but I’m eager to see what Benjamin Morrison does in his sophomore year.
Prediction
No real feel here. Their toughest games are at home, but there are plenty of questions that have to be answered on both sides of the ball.
UMass
Over 2 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 2.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Schedule Notes
Three of the first four are on the road, including a Sept. 2 trip to Auburn. The Minutemen get their next three at home as New Mexico, Arkansas State and Toledo all come to Amherst. Things get a lot tougher though as they have three road trips over the next six weeks to Penn State, Army and Liberty with two bye weeks mixed in.
Quarterback
GT transfer Taisun Phommachanh
Roster Notes
The offense managed over 20 points twice last year, so they were a team total under bettors dream. Phommachanh is intriguing at quarterback, but he doesn’t have much in the way of talent at WR to throw to. The running game may be OK with four offensive linemen back and Ka’Ron Adams at running back. Defensively, the team was “better” last year but still has its weaknesses. They allowed only 175 yards per game passing, but some of that was because teams were able to run on them. The Minutemen need to improve on the 18 sacks they had during the 2022 campaign. It stinks for them that one of their best players CB Josh Wallace transferred out of the program.
Prediction
I rarely play ones like these on the extreme side. They could win three games, but I’m not putting any money on it with so many other options out there.
