Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re all set for the men’s NCAA Tournament to start, which means we’re all set to get our gambling boots on. Here’s a look at four of my favorite props for the opening-round games Friday.
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Prop 1: Trevion Williams, Purdue (OVER 8.5 rebs vs. North Texas)
Boiler the heck up. If you haven’t experienced Williams before the Big Dance, you’re in for a tasty treat. Matt Painter’s premier post presence is artful in execution. He possesses a soft touch around the tin, excellent awareness, plus passing skills and a nose for the orange. Against exploitable interiors (e.g. Ohio St.), he’s repeatedly ripped down boards on both ends. Seven-foot-four frosh sensation, Zach Edey, has started to eat into his minutes and fouls can occasionally plague Williams, but against a not-so Mean Green frontcourt, he has a major leg up. On the season, North Texas ranks north of No. 135 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
Prop 2: D’Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin (OVER 13.5 pts vs UNC)
Completely outclassed on the glass by North Carolina’s bevy of real-life giants, Wisconsin, a jumper-dependent club, must have Trice catch fire, which he’s prone to do. A couple weeks ago, the senior guard blitzed current No. 1 seed Illinois for 19 points in a 2:19 timeframe. Volcanic. Carolina’s length is highly disruptive. Over its last nine games, it’s yielded just 29.3% from distance. Still, Trice, who has converted 38.0% from three and over 78% at the charity stripe, will have to hoist a ton of shots for the Badgers to compete.
Prop 3: Nathan Mensah, San Diego St. (OVER 5.5 rebs vs. Syracuse)
Jim Boeheim eats his own boogers. Yes, he does. It’s on tape. He’s also extremely fortunate to have his Orange in the tournament. Considering Syracuse’s rickety resume, dodging the First Four was a very generous Selection Committee gift. The Orange could get squeezed in their opening round matchup. San Diego St., No. 11 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, hasn’t garnered many headlines, but it’s a wonderfully coached team capable of executing at a high level. Mensah should rack the rebounds against the ACC rep, which ranks No. 339 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.
Prop 4: Cameron Krutwig, Loyola-Chicago (OVER 14.5 pts vs. Georgia Tech)
Damn you, dastardly COVID-19. Shoo. Disappear. Burn in an everlasting hellscape. With Moses Wright, ACC Player of the Year, out due to a positive test, Tech becomes highly exploitable around the tin. Wright is a supreme rim protector and scorer, hence the conference accolade. Going from him to Rodney Howard and/or Khalid Moore is a significant downgrade. Krutwig, one of the most decorated players in Missouri Valley Conference history, should devour the paint as though it's a mustard-clad Vienna Beef on a sesame seed bun. His slick footwork, baby hook, second-chance scent and deft touch around the tin will be too much for the Jackets to handle.
