MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is underway, and we get some exciting matchups as conference play begins. Below are my favorite bets for Wednesday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
UConn vs. Villanova
(Line: UConn -13.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s a classic buy-low/sell-high spot here, with UConn lighting the college basketball world (and analytics) on fire the start the year and Villanova still trying to figure things out in the post-Jay Wright era and getting healthy. The analytics (per KenPom) have UConn way up near Houston in their efficiencies ratings while Villanova is still buried after they lost five of six earlier in the year. Things are looking up for Villanova as they have won five straight and welcomed newcomer and five-star freshman Cam Whitmore to the rotation after he missed the beginning of the season due to injury. The matchup itself isn’t great for Villanova as they lack size on the interior to handle the UConn’s length behind All-Conference big man Adama Sanogo. Also, Villanova generates a ton of their offense from the three-point line (seventh nationally in 3pt FGA) while UConn defensively has run shooters off the three-point line all season (third nationally in 3pt FGA defense) and funneled drivers to the rim. Although the Wildcats have a tough matchup on the road, to me this is just way too many points to lay for two teams that I don’t have too far apart in my power rankings. Villanova’s crafty offense and high basketball IQ should be able to generate enough points against this stout defense to keep this one competitive. Look for Nova to pack this one in defensively and I’m willing to buy low and sell high here, even in a tougher matchup and environment.
The Pick
Villanova +13.5
Kentucky vs. Missouri
(Line: Kentucky -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
A lot of people have hit the panic button on the less-than-stellar start for Kentucky, as the Cats have lost to every single opponent ranked inside KenPom’s top 48 so far. Although it is true that they haven’t looked great on either ends of the floor and John Calipari is still trying to figure out the right rotations, I am willing to buy Kentucky low here in a matchup I think favors them quite well. Missouri is coming off two highlight wins against UCF on a buzzer beater and a total smashing of an Illinois team in turmoil (while shooting 50% from three), and the spot here screams for a floor performance from the Tigers. Matchup wise, the new-look Tigers under first year coach Dennis Gates look completely different from a year ago, emphasizing transition and pace (24th nationally in tempo). Boosting tempo against teams like UCF and Wichita State may have worked in Missouri’s favor but running with an overall much more talented team like Kentucky could be an issue, as we saw in the 30-point blowout loss to Kansas. The biggest factor in this matchup will be last year’s Wooden Award winner and absolute force inside Oscar Tshiebwe. Missouri has no one who can matchup with Big O downlow and Missouri’s inability to rebound the ball (346th nationally in defensive rebounding %) should lead to a ton of putbacks for Oscar. I am more confident veteran guard Sahvir Wheeler should benefit from the tempo boost and not turn the ball over (Missouri ranks fourth nationally in turnover % defense), which should allow Kentucky, who have struggled offensively so far this year, to get a ton of easy baskets. I like this opportunity for them to get back on track on the road here.
The Pick
Kentucky -2.5
