Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is underway, and we get some exciting matchups as conference play begins and 2022 comes to an end. Below are my favorite bets for Saturday’s New Year’s Eve slate. Let’s have some fun.
UConn vs. Xavier
(Line: UConn -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’ve been pretty open about my intentions behind fading UConn recently as the analytics (KenPom) have them ranked No. 2 nationally next to Houston. Don’t get me wrong, UConn is really good, but pricing them next to the elite like Houston is grossly overrating them. I will again be selling the Huskies against a surging Xavier team that has won seven straight and is one of the few teams in the Big East that can score on UConn’ stout defense (ninth nationally in offensive efficiency). UConn’s defense runs shooters off the three-point line (third nationally in 3pt FGA defense) funneling them into the paint where they a forced to finish over the Husky length. Yet, Xavier’s motion offense is predicated around getting the ball to the rim and Colby Jones, Souley Boum, Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle are all elite finishers. Xavier’s achilleas heel all season has been their poor defense but in a home environment where the Cintas Center will be rocking, I think the Xavier defense should have a little more juice and Sean Miller should be able to gameplan successfully against the UConn downhill attack. I have this game capped as Xavier -1, so I love getting the extra points here in a matchup where Xavier can match UConn’s size.
The Pick
Xavier +2.5
TCU vs. Texas Tech
(Line: TCU -4, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I have TCU ranked 18th in my power rankings while KenPom (the market) has them 37th, which is a massive buy indicator for the Horned Frogs. They’ve dealt with some injuries and floor performances in the beginning of the season but are finally healthy with Damion Baugh, Emmanuel Miller and Eddie Lampkin all available. In steps Texas Tech who are coming off of three straight games where they have beat up on poor competition which has raised their KenPom ranking, but are yet to play a true road game. The jury is still out on the Red Raiders as they have only played two teams ranked within KenPom’s top 100 (in Maui) and lost both by an average of nine points. TCU has the clear advantage in the backcourt behind dynamic point guard Mike Miles who has seen and has had success Mark Adam’s patented no-middle defense multiple times. They also have the size and athleticism between Lampkin and Miller to combat Texas Tech’s main source of offense in Daniel Batcho and Kevin Obanor. I will be buying this experienced and finally healthy TCU squad low and selling an unproven Texas Tech team with a relatively inexperienced backcourt. Schollmaier Arena should be rocking for TCU’s first conference game and they should roll here.
The Pick
TCU -4
