Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is underway, and we get some exciting matchups in the nonconference schedule. Below are my favorite bets for Saturday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
Virginia vs. Houston
(Line: Houston -1.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re in for a dog fight in Charlottesville between two programs primarily known for their defense with an implied total of just 113. Virginia is off to an outstanding start to the year, remaining undefeated with wins over the likes of Baylor, Illinois and Michigan. Houston made their way up to the No. 1 spot in the AP poll before losing a close one to Alabama. The story of this matchup revolves around the health of Virginia’s best perimeter defender Reece Beekman, who has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. Beekman would be the Cavs’ antidote to Houston’s All-American wing Marcus Sasser, and without him in the lineup, that opens up a ton offensively for the Cougars. Houston is known defensively for aggressively overloading to the ball and their elite scrambles weakside scrambles, so in order to have success against them you need to move the ball with pace and knock down weakside shots. UVA’s slow methodical mover-blocker offensive sets aren’t ideal for this aggressive Houston defensive scheme and their 3pt FG% has been on the decline since their wins in Vegas. Beekman not being 100% will be significant and Houston should have much more fire power offensively to run away with this one. I think this plays out similarly to the Houston blowout last year and they show everyone why they are the best team in the country.
The Pick: Houston -1.5
Arizona vs. Tennessee
(Line: Arizona -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
In another rematch from a season ago, Tennessee travels to Tucson to take on Tommy Lloyd’s exciting Arizona Wildcats. After the head-scratching loss to Colorado, Tennessee has rebounded nicely, winning eight straight, including wins over Butler, USC, Kansas and Maryland. Similar story for Arizona as they have wins over great programs such as Creighton, Indiana and San Diego State but had one trip up against Utah. The health of Tennessee will certainly play a factor in this one as Tennessee comes into this game with two of their best players banged up in Santiago Vescovi and Josiah Jordan James. Tennessee was able to pull out the victory a season ago behind a raucous home crowd and an out-of-body performance from John Fulkerson that completely stymied the Arizona frontcourt and put both Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubleis in foul trouble. Will that happen again here? Most likely not and Fulkerson graduated after what seemed like 15 years in the program. What is interesting with Tennessee is that they are not afraid to run with up-tempo teams, which is a great detriment to their strengths as they are arguably the best half court defense in the nation. In the half court, I can see Tennessee having success defending the elite frontcourt attack of Arizona, but Cats should get a lot of offense in transition before that defense ever sets up. With the home court Tucson crowd, the ability to score in transition and the banged up wings on Tennessee, all the signs point to an Arizona win here, so I will be backing Tommy Lloyd.
The Pick: Arizona -2
