Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is in midseason form, and we get some exciting matchups in the middle of conference play. Below are my favorite bets for Saturday’s slate.
Kansas vs. Kentucky
(Line: Kentucky -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The marquee matchup of the day has the Kansas Jayhawks traveling to Lexington to take on a rejuvenated John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats. Both teams are trending in opposite directions, with Kentucky winners of four straight after a disastrous loss to South Carolina in Rupp that forced Calipari to adjust his rotation. Meanwhile, Kansas is on a three-game losing streak and seems to have to play from behind in just about every Big 12 game so far. If you’ve read my breakdowns before, you know I like to think about the college basketball betting market like the stock market, and this screams “buy low” for Kansas, “sell high” for Kentucky. Matchup wise, the Jayhawks should have the advantage in the backcourt with the length and switchability they have on the perimeter with Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar. On the other hand, Kentucky does have a matchup nightmare in Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe inside against the tiny Jayhawk frontcourt. With the new lineup Calipari is running out, we’ve seen Oscar’s usage rate drop a bit recently (mostly because Sahvir Wheeler is playing fewer minutes). If Kentucky doesn’t play through Oscar, the Kansas backcourt should feast on the young Kentucky perimeter. Bill Self has never lost four straight games during his tenure at Kansas and we know how motivated Kansas should be after Kentucky blew the doors off of Phog Allen a season ago. Both teams should have success offensively (so I like the over as well), but I think Self can make more adjustments defensively to pull this one out.
The Pick
Kansas +2.5
BYU vs. St. Mary’s
(Line: St. Mary’s -6.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
KenPom’s darling and No. 7-ranked team in the country St. Mary’s hits the road here against BYU in what should be a raucous environment in Provo. I do love this St. Mary’s team, but No. 7 is way too high, and we know all the Vegas algorithms do is just follow KenPom. BYU has struggled a bit of their own this season, yet eight of their nine losses have been within eight-point margins. They still are playing elite defense (31st nationally in defensive efficiency) and playing teams close down to the wire. The matchup is interesting against St. Marys as Randy Bennett runs a heavy pick and roll point of attack and Mark Pope historically has been able to slow that down by continuously switching up BYU’s ball screen coverage (they held SMC to 43 points at home a season ago). On the defensive end, St. Mary’s is one of the best teams in the country at running shooters off the three-point line and protecting the rim with their elite drop coverage. BYU does get up their fair amount of threes but they tend to try to play inside-out through Fousseyni Traore in the post and Gideon George attacking the paint. I’ve been waiting for a sell-high spot to fade the Gaels and this one has grind written all over it, so I’ll be taking the points with the home team.
The Pick
BYU +6.5
