NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/27)

After recovering from a hectic holiday week, the sports world isn’t slowing down. Saturday offers some great college football action and of course a seven-game DFS slate around the NBA. Make sure to check out all of the terrific content throughout the day. 

Let’s break down the slate.

NBA Vegas Data for November 27 | NBA DFS First Look

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -5, total: 217
Pace: NYK (22nd), ATL (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick Rose has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday. Alec Burks and Immanuel Quickley would see bumps in opportunity if Rose remains out.

Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -1.5, total: 224.5
Pace: PHX (4th), BKN (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Joe Harris remains out for the Nets, but Bruce Brown (ankle) is listed as probable.

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

MIA -1.5, total: 212.5
Pace: MIA (26th), CHI (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -8.5, total: 204.5
Pace: ORL (11th), CLE (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Cole Anthony continues to deal with a sprained ankle. He missed his fourth consecutive game Friday but could finally return Saturday.
• For Cleveland, Evan Mobley (elbow) is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last four games.

Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets

CHA -6, total: 225
Pace: CHA (3rd), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Green will miss at least the next week with a hamstring injury.
• Meanwhile, Mason Plumlee is questionable to play with a calf injury.

Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -7, total: 211
Pace: WAS (24th), DAL (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jalen Brunson had his foot stepped on during his last game but did practice Friday and could play. He is listed as questionable.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz

UTA -13, total: 215.5
Pace: NOP (18th), UTA (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Darius Garland is averaging 83.9 touches per game since Collin Sexton’s injury

It is a stretch over eight games and during that span, Garland’s near 84 touches per contest are good for the ninth most in basketball. He is also averaging a healthy 6.7 minutes of possession per game during that time frame, while sporting an impressive 29.6% usage rate, 16% assist rate and nearly a fantasy point per minute. Garland has been more aggressive on offense without Sexton in the lineup, averaging just over 19 field goal attempts per game over his last eight contests. He gets a favorable home matchup with the Magic Saturday night.

Terry Rozier is averaging 4.8 transition points per game this season

That number is good for 13th in basketball, while Rozier is also sporting a healthy 23.6% frequency rate off the play type on the year, which is above league average. He is averaging an impressive 1.19 points per transition possession and now that he is back healthy, Rozier is logging very healthy minutes for Charlotte, playing 32-35 minutes in any competitive game. This game could get out of hand, as the Hornets are currently six-point road favorites, but this matchup is so enticing, as both teams play at a top-three pace in the NBA. As a result, the Rockets are coughing up a league-worst 24.6 transition points per game on the year, while also allowing the third-most points per possession (1.16) and fifth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (54%). It is also worth noting the FTN Daily NBA Optimizer likes Rozier.

Jalen Suggs is sporting a 28% usage rate with Cole Anthony off the floor this season

It is easily the highest number of any player on the Magic. Anthony has missed the last four games with an ankle injury and during that span, Suggs has been much more consistent for fantasy, averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute. In fact, his usage rate during that four-game stretch is actually even higher, sitting at just over 31%. If Anthony returns to the lineup tonight, Suggs is someone you probably won’t want to go to, but he would remain a very viable mid-range value if Anthony remains sidelined.

Jimmy Butler is averaging 2.8 points per game off post-ups this year

We know Butler doesn’t attempt a ton of threes and lives in the mid-range. However, it was a bit surprising to see him averaging nearly three points per game from the post, which is actually tied for the sixth-most in all of basketball this season. Butler is sporting a frequency rate near 12% in the post, while shooting 51.6% from the field off the play type. He gets a Chicago defense that is surrendering the most post-up points per game so far this season (5.8), while the Bulls also rank bottom-10 against primary ball handlers, scorers and point forwards, according to our advanced DVP tool. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Derrick White (44.0)
Anfernee Simons (37.0)
Buddy Hield (44.5)
Wendell Carter (48.0)
Clint Capela (56.75)
Tyrese Haliburton (51.0)
Draymond Green (48.5)
Dejounte Murray (59.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Dejounte Murray (60.2)
Russell Westbrook (60.5)
Anfernee Simons (36.2)
Tyrese Haliburton (51.7)
Keldon Johnson (38.8)
Buddy Hield (44.8)
Wendell Carter (47.0)
Draymond Green (48.6)
Clint Capela (58.4)

Dejounte Murray continued his stellar campaign Friday, scoring 29 points to go along with 11 rebounds, six assists, one block and three steals. He’s been either reaching or flirting with a triple-double in nearly every single game this season. Meanwhile, with Sacramento missing two key players in their rotation (Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes), two members of the Kings landed in both optimals Friday. Of course, the game going to triple overtime certainly helps.