NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/19)

After an NBA season where the championship trophy was hoisted by the Bucks, DFS players are back at it in an effort to make some bucks.

That’s right. The NBA season is back.

This is the best time of the year for sports fans, as we have the NFL and playoff baseball going on and both basketball and hockey have started up. The 2021-22 season kicks off with two star-studded games, as the reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets, followed by a Western Conference battle between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. This is going to be a tremendous season and FTN has you covered with a first look at every slate, every morning. 

Here we go.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -1
2020 pace: Milwaukee (2nd), Brooklyn (11th)

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -3.5
2020 pace: Los Angeles (16th), Golden State (2nd)

Situations to Monitor

• Kyrie Irving won’t play for the Nets, as he is still away from the team — this game is in Milwaukee, but the team has said he can’t play anywhere until he can play everywhere. The Nets could be without him for the entire season, potentially.
• The Bucks, meanwhile, may have a tighter rotation on opening night. Bobby Portis (hamstring) has been ruled out, along with Rodney Hood and Semi Ojeleye. Meanwhile, Donte DiVincenzo isn’t quite ready to return from last year’s foot injury.
• With James Wiseman and Klay Thomson both out for the Warriors, more minutes will be available for role players like Nemanja Bjelica. Facing a Lakers team with plenty of size, Bjelica could play some five in this game, as Golden State really only has Bjelica, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney in the frontcourt.
• Finally, the Lakers guards are banged up at the moment. Talen Horton-Tucker and Wayne Ellington have already been ruled out for this game, while Kendrick Nunn is questionable. If he can’t play, Malik Monk should be in line for plenty of minutes, though his usage rate playing alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis and now Russell Westbrook will be minimal.

Five Stats to Know

James Harden posted a 32% assist rate with Kyrie Irving off the floor last year

When Harden joined the Nets last season, Brooklyn used him as the main ball-handler and point guard, while Irving played more of the pure shooting guard position. In fact, Harden averaged 92.4 touches per game with Brooklyn (fourth most), while his 8.6 minutes of possession per game was third in basketball. But as you’d expect, Harden is more aggressive on offense with Irving off the floor, as his usage rate climbed by nearly 6% with Kyrie off the court last year, while his assist rate jumped to a healthy 32% mark. 

The Bucks allowed the fifth-most spot-up points per game in 2020 (28.5)

Playing alongside three elite scorers, Joe Harris’ usage and shot volume can be very inconsistent, but perhaps it is more trustworthy with Irving out for the Nets. Harris is always locked into huge minutes and will get plenty of great looks playing with James Harden and Kevin Durant. In 2020, Harris averaged 8.3 points per game off catch-and-shoot opportunities, third in the NBA, while shooting a whopping 52% off the play type. He also averaged 5.3 spot-up points per game, tied for 15th in the league. This could be a good spot for him here, as Milwaukee has allowed a ton of production from beyond the arc over the last few seasons because they clog the paint with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. Last season, the Bucks coughed up 37.9% of points from three-point land, the third-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, their 28.5 points per game allowed to spot-up shooters were the fifth-most in basketball. This is a sneaky good spot for Harris on opening night.

Russell Westbrook and LeBron James were both top-five in transition scoring last year

Westbrook joining the Lakers should make for some very, very fun basketball. We have already seen the connection between Westbrook and James out on the break during the preseason, and that is something we could see quite a bit this season, especially in the opener. In 2020, Westbrook averaged the third-most transition points per game (5.6), which was actually tied with his new teammate, James. Both players love to get out in transition and are very efficient when they do so. We could see plenty of that against a Warriors team that ranked second in the league in pace a season ago.

Bruce Brown averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie Irving off the court last season

That may not seem like a massive number, but it is actually quite impressive when you consider his usage rate only climbed to around 16% with Irving off the floor. Brown’s minutes aren’t as solidified as Harris’ but I’d guess he plays anywhere from 23 to 30 minutes, which would be more than enough to warrant consideration at just $3,600 on DraftKings. He is also SG and SF eligible, which offers some nice flexibility. 

Stephen Curry averaged 22 shot attempts per game in 2020

Curry had to carry this Warriors team for basically all of last season, and with Klay Thompson not expected back until December, look for Steph to once again dominate the usage and shot attempts to begin the 2021 campaign. He averaged 22 field goal attempts per game last year, with over 12 of those field goals per contest coming from beyond the arc, presenting him with obvious immense upside. The Lakers defense has been very good over the last few seasons, but their guards don’t worry me as much as their interior. 

With this being just a two-game slate, you might have to get different in some spots. Everyone is going to look at Kevin Durant and James Harden with Kyrie Irving out for the Nets but, it will be interesting to see what the usage looks like with the Lakers in their first game. We know all three superstars have serious fantasy upside, but how likely is it that all three meet or exceed value in DFS?