Fantasy Faceoff: Nick Chubb vs. Joe Mixon

Each week, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Nick Chubb or Nick Chubb? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!

In favor of Joe Mixon (Jeff Ratcliffe)

A lot of fantasy football drafters don’t like Mixon, and I don’t think they actually know why. This is another example of the Dave Matthews Band phenomenon. When I was in college in the early 2000s, a lot of people liked DMB. But most people in this group really only liked DMB because their friends liked DMB. Disliking Mixon in fantasy football for a lot people is the same thing as liking DMB was in the early 2000s.

Instead of thinking that his fantasy value is going to crash, we should really take a look at the numbers. In fact, they have so much to say. He was fantastic down the stretch last season, ranking fourth among running backs in fantasy scoring from Week 10 on. While he only averaged two catches per game during that stretch, the Bengals fed him a massive 22.1 carries per game. That volume is made all the more impressive given how bad the Bengals were last year.

Of course, their utter ineptitude also helped land Joe Burrow in this year’s draft. With a more capable signal caller, Mixon is in a good spot to continue his productive ways from last season. So while all the ants are marching along with the anti-Mixon sentiment, don’t drink the water. Mixon is a rock-solid RB1 who you can get at a slight discount in this year’s fantasy drafts.

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In favor of Nick Chubb (Brad Evans)

Rub-a-dub-dub, give this rather loquacious voice Mr. Chubb. Cleveland’s wrecking ball is one of the virtual game’s most efficient rushers. Last season he ranked inside the top-five in yards after contact per attempt (3.96) and tallied one of the finest missed tackle rates (23.6%) at the position. The dude is an incensed mastiff who will earn every Milkbone imaginable. 

Most will downgrade Chubb because of Kareem Hunt’s presence. Full disclosure, when the pair worked in tandem Weeks 10-17, the incumbent’s production dipped noticeably. He still averaged a hefty 19.4 touches per game, but his reduced passing-game role (11-117-0) pushed him to RB15 over that stretch. 

Kevin Stefanski and OC Chad O’Shea have creative designs to feature Hunt in a dual-threat role. Still, Chubb will continue to operate as the between-the-tackles battering ram. If Mayfield rediscovers his aerial success from two seasons ago and Cleveland’s improved offensive line melds, Chubb will easily match last fall’s top-10 finish. Continuity will be critical in these COVID-19 times. Outside of a coaching change, Cleveland has it. Cincinnati, however, does not.

Mixon is doing backstrokes in murkier waters. Joe Burrow is the real deal, but how quickly he acclimates to the pro game without preseason action prompts questions. A.J. Green, too, is shrouded in mystery. Additionally, the Bengals’ offensive line, which ranked in the basement in many run-blocking metrics in 2019, has miles to go before regaining respectability. 

Essentially, if Cleveland finally delivers on its promise, Chubb should join the 10-TD club. Mixon’s membership, though, is a greater stretch.