DraftKings NFL DFS Picks -- Week 1

We’ve finally made it. The preseason is over, our season-long drafts are in the books, and now it’s time to focus on Week 1 of the NFL season. All 32 teams will be in action this week, but this piece will focus on the 13-game main slate.

DraftKings is unsurprisingly rolling out the red carpet for the first NFL slate of the season, including TWO Milly Makers. There are also a host of other GPPs of all shapes and sizes to consider to go along with all the usual head-to-heads, 50/50s, and double-ups. Overall, it doesn’t get much better for an NFL DFS player than Week 1.

Let’s dive into some DraftKings-specific plays to consider for all your Week 1 contests.

Quarterback

Top Play

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons ($6,400)

It seems like people are sleeping on Hurts’ fantasy upside this season. His passing ability remains in question, but he had no problems shredding people with his arm in college. He averaged 11.3 yards per attempt and posted an 89.7 QBR, both of which rank in the 94th percentile or better. He also cracked the Alabama starting lineup as a true freshman, which is easier said than done.

Of course, where Hurts really makes his money is with his legs. He put his rushing ability on full display in his three complete games last year, averaging nearly 80 rushing yards per game. That kind of performance on the ground can easily overcome any deficiencies he has with his arm, evidenced by his nearly 30 DKFP per game last year:

Hurts gets arguably the best possible matchup to start his season vs. the Falcons. No team allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year, and they don’t figure to be much better defensively in 2021-22. Hurts is merely the eighth-most expensive quarterback on the Week 1 main slate, but he owns the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Optimizer.

Other Options

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets ($5,000)

If you feel like dumpster diving at quarterback, you could do a lot worse than Darnold. The Jets passing defense was atrocious last year, and they were dreadful once again during the preseason. Darnold saw arguably the biggest upgrade of any player during the offseason, moving to a Panthers’ squad loaded with pass-catching talent. Not only do they possess an excellent receiving trio of D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall, but Christian McCaffrey is the best receiving back in the game.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,100)

There’s more than enough value available on this slate, so paying up for Mahomes is certainly viable. He’s the best player in the league in the prime of his career, and he leads all quarterbacks in median and ceiling projections in our NFL Optimizer. The Chiefs also lead the slate with an implied team total of 29.5 points.

Running Back

Top Play

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers ($8,600)

Kamara is priced at a slight discount compared to McCaffrey ($9,500) and Dalvin Cook ($9,100), but he owns the top ceiling projection in our optimizer. He’ll be playing his first full season without Drew Brees, but everything else has broken right for him during the offseason. Jameis Winston won the Saints starting quarterback, which means he should remain active in the passing game. His numbers took a hit last year when Taysom Hill was under center — Hill was much more willing to tuck it and run than dump it to Kamara — but that shouldn’t be an issue with Winston.

Additionally, the absence of Michael Thomas has the potential to be massive for Kamara’s fantasy stock. He’s averaged more carries and targets in eight games without Thomas, resulting in nearly an additional 11.5 DKFP per game:

This game between the Packers and Saints also stands out as one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. The total currently sits at 50.0 points, while the Packers are slight 4.5-point favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.

Other Options

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings ($6,200)

Mixon stands out as one of the best points-per-dollar plays at the position. He’s a legit three-down workhorse, and he should easily set a new career-high in receptions with Gio Bernard now in Tampa Bay. He could also threaten a new career-high in touchdowns. The Bengals offense has the potential to be much better in Joe Burrow’s second season after ranking just 29th in points-per-game last year. Nothing stands out about his matchup vs. the Vikings, but he’s simply too cheap considering his potential volume.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,200)

Harris is not the type of player I typically target on DraftKings, but $5,200 seems like a great price tag for him in this matchup. The Dolphins were a massive run funnel last year. They had one of the best pass defenses in the league — they finished sixth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA — but they ranked just 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Harris also has a chance for a larger role around the goal line this season with Cam Newton no longer in town.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans ($4,600)

Edmonds’ stock has remained in check thanks to the Cardinals’ offseason addition of James Conner, but he’s already proven he can do a lot of damage without many touches. The total on this game currently sits at 52.0 points, and Edmonds has historically averaged more than three additional touches in games with a total of at least 50 points. He’s made the most of those extra opportunities, averaging more than eight additional DKFP per game:

Wide Receiver

Top Play

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($7,900)

Ridley is priced in the same tier as guys like Davante Adams ($8,300) and Tyreek Hill ($8,200), and he has the potential to enter that stratosphere of production this season. The Falcons traded Julio Jones to the Titans in the offseason, which opens up a ton of targets in Atlanta. Ridley should pick up some of the slack, and he’s averaged nearly 4.5 additional targets without Jones throughout his career:

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that he averages roughly 6.75 additional DKFP per game. The Eagles also represent an excellent matchup, ranking just 24th in pass defense DVOA last season.

Other Options

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions ($5,700)

I have some skepticism about Aiyuk’s role with the 49ers this season. Most of his big games last year came with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out of the lineup, and both players are healthy to start the year. Still, he oozes upside in this matchup vs. the Lions. They possess arguably the worst secondary in the league, and Aiyuk owns the best WR/CB matchup on the slate per ProFootballFocus.

Tyler Boyd ($5,200) & Tee Higgins ($4,700), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings

Both players stand out as strong values for the Bengals early in the season. Ja’Marr Chase is expected to earn more snaps as the season progresses, and he has the talent to eventually blossom into their No. 1 wide receiver. However, he hasn’t played football since 2019, so he’s unexpectedly been a bit rusty during the offseason. It’s going to take him some time to get back into the swing of things, and there has even been talk of him losing snaps to Auden Tate to start the year. That should leave Boyd and Higgins as the Bengals’ top two receivers against a subpar Vikings’ secondary.

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers ($3,400)

One of the quirks of Week 1 is that the pricing comes out early. That means there isn’t time to adjust to players like Callaway who had monster preseasons. He displayed excellent chemistry with Jameis Winston, and he’ll serve as their top receiver for as long as Michael Thomas is sidelined. His matchup vs. the Packers is not ideal, but he’s simply too cheap at $3,400.

Tight End

Top Play

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($4,400)

Pitts should command pretty massive ownership on this slate. He’s priced as just the eighth-most expensive tight end, yet he owns the third-highest ceiling and median projections. The only players projected for more points at the position are Travis Kelce and George Kittle, and both players are significantly more expensive.

Tight ends don’t have a great track record as rookies, but Pitts enters the league as arguably the most-hyped TE prospect in history. His size and athletic measurables are off the charts, and he also dominated as a pass-catcher at Florida. Basically, he checks every possible box at the position. He will likely be deployed as a receiver far more than as a blocker, so he has a chance to make an instant impact.

Other Options

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,300)

Pitts is the superior points-per-dollar play, but Kelce is still the king at tight end. He’s been one of the best tight ends in football for a while now, but he took his game to another level last year. Starting in Week 8, Mahomes zeroed in on Kelce more than he had at any other point in his career:

Those numbers are absolutely insane, and getting that kind of production from a tight end is basically unfair. That’s why he was a first-round pick in redrafts this summer, and that’s why he’s priced as the fifth-most expensive player on the entire slate.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,900)

If you’re looking for a direct pivot from Pitts, Hockenson could be your guy. He’s looking at a massive target share for the Lions this season, who have no proven pass-catchers at wide receiver. Hockenson also entered the league with an elite pedigree — he was the No. 8 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft — and he appears poised for a breakout in his third professional season.