Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Predicting the future is hard, but spotting fantasy football value sometimes can be seen a mile away. That is the case with these two receivers, who can make your team league winners. That moment where you are holding that trophy, covered in champagne, staring at it like you are Michael Jordan… you can look back at this moment and say, “I am glad I read Eliot’s article on FTN Fantasy and added these two players.”
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Fantasy football sleepers – Wide receiver
Here is a look at two wide receivers I am targeting as sleepers to fill out fantasy football rosters.
Jakobi Meyers is the best value in fantasy football
(FTN Fantasy ADP: 169.86, WR64)
After Corey Davis blew up in the game against the Green Bay Packers, the entire fantasy industry started clamoring that he was the cheapest WR1 in an offense and the best value in fantasy as he has jumped 26 spots in ADP this month. The truth is that while Davis is a good value, he was never the cheapest WR1 in fantasy — that title remains with Jakobi Meyers in New England.
Someone I mentioned in my Risers and Fallers piece, Meyers’ workload is something that makes him a must in drafts. Looking at our Air Yards tool, you see an incredible analytical profile for Meyers. He caught 59 of 81 targets last year, seeing 41% of the Patriots air yards and 28.7% of the team’s targets. His weighted opportunity score — a formula that defines his total workload in the offense — he finished with the third highest in all of football, ahead of Stefon Diggs, who went on to lead the league in receiving yards.
Meyers has looked dominant this preseason and is the clear top target as free agent signing Nelson Agholor has been injured and has been quiet when he has practiced. The thing that held back Meyers from a breakout season last year was the lack of touchdown upside in the offense — Cam Newton threw for one or zero touchdowns in all but one game while failing to break the 200-passing-yard mark in all but five games. Newton has now been cut for Mac Jones, who offers far more as a pure passer and is a boost for all Patriots receivers. If the Patriots offense returns to form in the passing game, Meyers’ share of the offense has him looking like a 75-catch season with over 1,000 yards — at his price tag, that is stealing.
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Elijah Moore is this year’s rookie breakout receiver
(FTN Fantasy ADP: 143.79, WR56)
Justin Jefferson was a dominant rookie a year ago, and who could be this year’s Jefferson is a fantasy question everyone wants answers to. The reality about outliers is they are outliers for a reason and rarely repeat themselves. Jefferson blew up as a rookie and possessed one of the highest win rates in fantasy football last season at 42% on Underdog Fantasy last season, the second highest in all of football.
Elijah Moore, a second-round pick out of Ole Miss, is a player currently going in the double-digit rounds who has an opportunity to make a major mark in his rookie year. His analytical profile leaves you drooling. He averaged the most yards per game last year (157.1) of any Power Five receiver this century. He broke out his freshman season despite playing with DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown — Brown recently said Moore is better than he is.
If you are worried about Moore slipping to the second round in this year’s draft, you shouldn’t be. In fact, 25% of second-round receivers have made the Pro Bowl since 2015, compared to only 9% of first-round receivers — so falling to the second round is not a major indictment of his potential.
Moore is an explosive receiver who was making noise every single day in camp before a quad injury. The Jets played it safe with him resting him and the buzz died down on Moore a bit. Moore was fully healthy and ready to play, but head coach Robert Saleh chose to rest him with the starters after the inclement weather, something he did not chose to do with Keelan Cole, a player people think could be ahead of Moore on the depth chart.
Reports have all been outstanding about the rookie, with Daniel Jeremiah comparing him to Antonio Brown and calling for a 1,000-yard season.
He and Zach Wilson are said to have amazing chemistry and he will play both inside and outside. He is a route running practitioner, perfect for Mike LaFluer’s system. The Jets will consistently be playing from behind with one of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Jets pass offense could spike more than people think this year and Moore could be the primary beneficiary. With his talent and upside at his current cost, Elijah Moore is a must-draft.
