Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Welcome to On the Bump, our MLB DFS pitching primer. This article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach our process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. For each article, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. Some at first glance, and some with in-depth research.
I’ll first identify the pitchers who stand out given their matchups, price tag and Vegas lines, among other factors. I’ll pick my favorite arms to roster for tournaments and cash, seek out any value so we can get a little weird with our lineups, and then I’ll share who I’m fading. So with that out of the way, let’s get to it.
MLB DFS pitching picks for July 4
At first glance:
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (vs. NYM)
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (@ PIT)
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays (vs. TB)
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox (@ DET)
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves (vs. MIA)
Picks
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (vs NYM)
Cole’s available on DraftKings only, as the Yankees and Mets are scheduled to play a Sunday doubleheader. This will be a seven-inning contest, so Cole certainly has the potential to spin a complete game. Cole checks in with 129:17 K:BB and a 2.66 ERA in 101.2 innings, but he’s struggled of late. The Yankees’ ace has allowed 14 bombs on the season, including nine over his past five starts. He only surrendered 8 runs, 3 homers and 3 walks through his first eight starts of the season, but he’s coughed up 22 runs, 11 homers and 14 walks in his last eight outings. The righty has a solid 2.31 ERA at home, but he’s only pitched twice at Yankee Stadium over his last six outings. Could a lack of sticky substance be the reason Cole has looked unlike himself of late? It’s fair to speculate, and it’s fair to question whether you should roll him out in cash.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (@ PIT)
Peralta’s in a fantastic spot against the Pirates, and his Brewers are the hottest team in baseball. Milwaukee has won 11 straight games and they have a league-best 30-10 record since May 22. Peralta’s a big reason why, as he’s rocking a 2.17 ERA and a 12.62 K/9 (36 K%). He’s allowed two or fewer runs in nine straight starts and one or zero in six of those outings. The Brewer has only coughed up more than two earned runs in a start twice this season. The one knock has been his control, as he’s walking 3.83 batters per nine innings and has issued eight walks in his past two starts. It shouldn’t be a huge concern Sunday, as the Pirates have a bottom-10 walk rate and are 28th in OBP (.298). They’re also last in wOBA (.287), SLG (.351), ISO (.123) and 29th in wRC+ (81). They don’t strike out a ton, but Peralta racked up seven strikeouts against them back in May and he’s had at least seven punchouts in 13 of his 15 starts (never fewer than six).
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays (vs. TB)
Ray has been surprisingly consistent as he enters start No. 16 on the season with a 3.43 ERA and a career-best 2.28 BB/9. Not bad for someone who has a 4.10 BB/9 over 929 career innings (7 per last season). The strikeouts have always been there though, and this season’s no different, as his 31.7 K% is the second highest of his career. He’s still allowing a lot of home runs (19) as he’s only had two starts without serving up a bomb, but they’ve mostly been solo shots because his command has been on point. Ray has allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his 15 starts and he’s reached nine strikeouts in eight of his 15 outings, including four of his past six. He’s faced the Rays twice this season and he’s totaled 16 strikeouts in 13 innings while only allowing four runs. Tampa Bay enters with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball (26.7%) and the second highest vs. LHP (27.7%).
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox (@ DET)
The Tigers have a league-high 27 K% and 12.9 SwStr%, so Giolito should be on your radar. He has 111 strikeouts in 93.2 innings and 25 have come against Detroit. The Tigers have actually gotten to Giolito in the three starts they’ve faced him as they’ve racked up 17 hits, 10 earned runs and seven homers in 19.2 innings. In fact, Giolito has allowed 18 homers and at least one in 12 of his 16 starts (nine over a five-game streak). With all of that said, Giolito has at least seven strikeouts in 12 starts this season and five of his past six. He may serve up a solo shot here and there, but 7-9 strikeouts are likely Sunday.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves (vs. MIA)
Morton also checks in with a double-digit K/9 (10.38), and he’s limited the home runs, unlike most of the arms on this slate. Morton has a solid 48 GB%, which is a big reason he’s only allowed eight homers in 16 starts. He has 100 strikeouts and 29 walks over 86.2 innings, which has led to a 3.74 ERA. He enters Sunday having only allowed three runs over his past three starts, and it’s been three or fewer for the righty in nine of his past 10 outings. However, the Marlins have had their way with Morton this season (11 hits and nine runs in 10 innings vs. Morton). Those were two of Morton’s worst starts of the season, but one came in May when he was struggling. Miami ranks fifth in strikeouts, 11th in swinging strike percentage and 29th in ISO. They also have a bottom five wOBA over the past 30 days.
Cash/GPP
Cash arms
Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito
Robbie Ray (DK)
Charlie Morton (DK)
Peralta is by far the safest option on the slate, as he’s been extremely consistent and has the best matchup on the board. His Brewers have won 11 straight games and have a league-best 30-10 record since May 22. They are the biggest favorites on the board despite playing on the road.
GPP arms
Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito
Gerrit Cole
Robbie Ray
Charlie Morton
Cole makes an appearance in the GPP player pool due to his upside and the seven-inning game. Getting a complete game out of Cole on DK could be the difference but I have some concerns with his overall performance of late. I plan on having a lot of Peralta and Giolito, especially on FanDuel. I’ll mix both Ray and Morton in on DraftKings.
If you have questions, be sure to tag me in our FTNDaily Discord.
