Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).

Pros

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
Dawson Knox has posted a staggering 28.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
This year, the shaky Patriots defense has yielded a massive 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-worst in the league.

Cons

This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
Dawson Knox has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
Dawson Knox’s 59.7% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a a remarkable diminishment in his receiving skills over last year’s 74.5% mark.
Dawson Knox’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, totaling just 4.19 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.95 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards