Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Gardner Minshew from EV Insight

Gardner MinshewPassing Yards

Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-143) after it opened @ 222.5 (-113).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Colts O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In tallying a paltry 21.6 pass attempts per game this year, Gardner Minshew ranks among the bottom QBs in the league (16th percentile) in this statistic.
With a terrible rate of 150.0 adjusted passing yards per game (18th percentile), Gardner Minshew stands among the bottom passers in the league this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards