Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-131) after it opened @ 53.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Commanders ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- Terry McLaurin has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
- Terry McLaurin’s 44.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 58.6.
- Terry McLaurin’s 54.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 67.0 mark.
- This year, the fierce Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a mere 120.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
