Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-129) after it opened @ 269.5 (-117).

Pros

Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the projection model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.9.
This year, the deficient Denver Broncos defense has given up a colossal 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the biggest rate in the league.
This year, the poor Denver Broncos defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a whopping 9.86 yards.
The Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Patrick Mahomes’s 260.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a a material decline in his passing skills over last season’s 325.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards