Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-127) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Lions to run on 46.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- David Montgomery has generated 56.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (82nd percentile).
- The Carolina Panthers defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.49 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
