Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 64.8 plays per game.
- Mac Jones has attempted 37.0 throws per game this year, grading out in the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Mac Jones’s 67.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a a remarkable gain in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 64.5% figure.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.
- The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football versus the Saints defense this year (65.1% Adjusted Completion%).
- This year, the stout Saints defense has allowed the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a puny 6.7 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
