Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 64.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to accumulate 5.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- Hunter Henry has totaled significantly more air yards this year (51.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.
- The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Hunter Henry’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, notching a mere 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.85 mark last year.
- Since the start of last season, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has given up a measly 57.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the lowest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
