Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
- The predictive model expects the Saints to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- The projections expect Chris Olave to accumulate 9.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Chris Olave has put up many more air yards this season (134.0 per game) than he did last season (114.0 per game).
Cons
- The Saints O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Chris Olave has been among the weakest WRs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England’s LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
