Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-114).

Pros

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Saints to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The projections expect Chris Olave to accumulate 9.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Chris Olave has put up many more air yards this season (134.0 per game) than he did last season (114.0 per game).

Cons

The Saints O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Chris Olave has been among the weakest WRs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England’s LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards