Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 10.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
With a top-tier 29.9% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.
The Bills offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Stefon Diggs’s 106.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a a remarkable progression in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 90.0 rate.

Cons

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Stefon Diggs has compiled far fewer air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
The Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.4%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (64.4%).
Jaguars cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards