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Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 4

Bills vs. Dolphins

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-110) after it opened @ 86.5 (-114).

Pros

  • The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Tyreek Hill has put up a staggering 136.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among WRs.
  • Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 100.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Cons

  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
  • The Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the league.
  • The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Projection
THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight Next Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Marquise Brown from EV Insight