Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 36.4 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
Cons
- The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.5%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards
221
Passing Yards
