Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-113) after it opened @ 214.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mac Jones’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 69.0%.

Cons

Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 206.0 per game) against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Cowboys defense has allowed a mere 68.8% Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards