Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-129/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-129) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this season (52.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook’s running efficiency (6.00 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (93rd percentile among running backs).
James Cook has been among the leading RBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.80 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
The Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 107 per game) vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards