Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-129/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+100) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Falcons to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has been among the top TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 35.0 yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- The Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (55.4%) versus TEs this year (55.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
