Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-129/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+100) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Falcons to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has been among the top TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 35.0 yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.
The Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (55.4%) versus TEs this year (55.4%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards