Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joshua Kelley

Joshua KelleyRushing Yards

Right now, Joshua Kelley’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-120/-100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-100) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).

Pros

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Kelley to earn 15.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Joshua Kelley’s ground efficiency (4.76 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (75th percentile among running backs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards