College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-108/-121).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-108) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to earn 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Sam LaPorta has earned a monstrous 11.1% of his team’s air yards this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
- Sam LaPorta has been among the best possession receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a stellar 91.7% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (59.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
