Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jahmyr Gibbs from EV Insight

Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards

Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-105/-124).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-105) after it opened @ 46.5 (-112).

Pros

The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jahmyr Gibbs to earn 14.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (133 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards