Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 9.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 29.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 78.0 yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has struggled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards