Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Titans
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-113).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Jerome Ford has been among the leading RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 4.45 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have run for the least yards in the league (just 76 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
